NFL Week 1 overreactions: Bears unstoppable, Packers & Chargers cooked, Raiders & Jets are playoff sleepers and more

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Week 1 in the NFL is an exciting event of newness, discovery and surprise. With the long wait for games that count after the Super Bowl and the offseason rigmarole, first impressions can carry much weight.

They can also be overblown because one week doesn't make a trend or narrative that will last for the entire season, with the exception of some expect results.

The hyperbole tied to how all teams fared in their opening games is fair in relation to the anticipation and anxiety. But it's also important to get a reality check, to find the facts and the fiction. Here's what to know after Week 1, curing the hottest of early takes with a dose of reality.

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Worst overreactions from NFL Week 1

Ben Johnson

"The Bears' offense with Caleb Williams is unstoppable"

Offensive-minded head coach Ben Johnson boasted about how Chicago would break the single-season scoring record in 2026. After a wild, relentless 59-37 Week 1 win over host Carolina, the Bears are on pace to score 1,003 points in the 2026 NFL regular season.

The record, in 16 games, is still held by the 2012 Broncos, who hit 606 points while averaging 37.9 points per game. They got all the way to Super Bowl 48 before losing to the Seahawks. The 17-game mark is held by the 2024 Lions, who scored 564, the fourth-highest all-time.

Johnson was the offensive coordinator for those Lions, who won the NFC North and were the conference's top seed in the playoffs. Two more scoring juggernauts, he 2007 Patriots (lost in Super Bowl) and 2018 Chiefs (lost in AFC championship) also went deep into the playoffs.

Will the Bears keep the gas on keep dropping "50 burgers" to shatter the ceiling on single-season points? No. But will their offense give them a chance in every game, led by Caleb Williams an the running of both D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai? Yes.

Chicago runs into two much tougher defensive matchups, at home against the Vikings and Eagles the next two games.  The Bears are bound to cool down. They needed to keep moving the ball on Panthers in a surprise back-and-fourth shootout so they could finally put the game away. There will be many games where the Bears can jump ahead for good earlier and trust their rushing attack to play second-half closer. 

Critics will knock the Bears' defense as they won't win the NFC, but it will get better and it's again more based on making big plays and takeaways. vs. yards and points allowed. The Bears will outscore plenty of teams just scoring in 30s, but the '12 Broncos should be on alert for a new member of the 600-point club.

"The Packers aren't looking like a playoff team anymore with Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur"

What was that? The Packers were up 22-10 midway through the third quarter. Then they melted down, letting the Vikings score four touchdowns in the final 18 minutes of the game to flip the game to a 39-22 rout for host Minnesota. The defense without Micah Parsons couldn't stop a rally by Carson Wentz, who played super-sub once Kyler Murray was knocked out with a concussion in his starting QB debut for his new team.

Jordan Love was rolling early passing deep balls to newly paid Christian Watson. But then he lost his accuracy, was sacked four times and threw an interception. With no Josh Jacobs, the Packers ran for only 66 yards on 20 carries. 

Green Bay got sloppy under LaFleur to blow a big lead. Their defense wilted against a Vikings team that had little more going than the running game and big plays by wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Overall, the Packers' numbers went from impressive to horrible, include a late lost fumble that sealed their fate.

The Packers are talented enough to rebound from a tough division game on the road. Getting the Jets, Falcons and Buccaneers in the next three games helps, ahead of their first matchup with the Bears in Lambeau Field. 

"The Chargers aren't looking like a playoff team anymore with Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert"

What was that? The bad teams in the NFL were beaten badly, except for the Cardinals, who may not be so bad under rookie coach Mike LaFleur. This LaFleur led some inspired offense back in Los Angeles where he was ace offensive coordinator for the Rams' Sean McVay.

Arizona shocked the Chargers, 26-14. Jacoby Brissett got hot early at QB and the rushing attack produced 116 yards in a thorough trashing of heavy game favorites. Justin Herbert looked lost early in Mike McDaniel's offense and the running game stalled with Omarion Hampton getting 49 yards on 12 carries.

The new-look defense minus Jesse Minter was terrible, allowing too many chunk plays for the Cardinals' passing and running. Chris O'Leary's debut as coordinator matched McDaniel's. 

The Chargers are a very talented team and a coach of Harbaugh's caliber should never have this happen at home in Week 1. Here's the deal, however: Los Angeles needed this game badly. After Las Vegas in Week 2, the Chargers face at Bills, at Seahawks. vs, Broncos, at Chiefs and at Rams. Yikes. Throwing away this game was not auspicious. Harbaugh wanted better offensive results and though his defense would keep the same winning concepts. That's not materializing, and must do so stat to save a hyped season.

"The Raiders look like an AFC playoff team with improved coaching"

The vibes were positive in Las Vegas all offseason with Klint Kubiak, fresh off coordinating the Seahawks' offense to Super Bowl 60, taking over as head coach for part-owner Tom Brady. They also were calculated in preferring to begin the season with rookie No. 1 overall pick QB Fernando Mendoza on the bench.

The decision paid off right away in Week 1 vs. Miami. a sound, well-rounded 27-13 victory. Kirk Cousins had a pair of interceptions, but he looked sharp overall with his 3 TDs in a familiar offensive system. The Raiders made it easier on Cousins with second-year back Ashton Jeanty leading his team to 130 rushing yards. Kubiak had his group adjust well minus its top receiver, tight end Brock Bowers.

Maxx Crosby, who missed chances to be traded for the Raiders, had 1.5 sacks and got good pass-rush help from free-agent additions Nakobe Dean and Kwity Paye. Rookie second-round safety Treydan Stukes was another new key playmaker, getting an interception of Malik Willis in his NFL debut.

The Raiders needed those good initial feelings for all the controversy they have had during their time in Las Vegas. With the struggling Chargers and young Saints as the next two games on the road, there's a chance for the Raiders to be 3-0 before a home showdown with the archrival Chiefs.

The Dolphins are expected to be one of the league's worst teams, but beating the bad is a good start. There is little margin for error for the Raiders to get into at least wild-card contention in a tough division in the tougher conference.

"The Jets look like an AFC playoff sleeper with improved offense"

The Jets also got a favorable bottom-feeding interdivision AFC matchup, as they beat the Titans in Nashville, 23-10. The big reason was Geno Smith, who stabilized starting quarterback while he didn't take a sack or throw an interception.

Smith rated 104.0 and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt in Frank Reich's offense. He was aggressive throwing downfield to Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. Cooper's fellow first-round, tight end Kenyon Sadiq scored on a early round and made some key catches. Breece Hall had 102 of the team's 152 rushing yards.

In relation, the Titans' new-look passing game under Brian Daboll struggled as second-year QB Cam Ward did. The Jets put up balanced and explosive offense while facing their former defensive-minded coach, Robert Saleh.

The Jets' offense looks functional and creative for the first time in a while, helped by wholesale personnel and philosophical changes. But they'll get some much tougher tests coming up against the Packers, Lions and Bears in the next three games, where it will be challenging to keep up on the scoreboard. The Jets needed that positive start for Aaron Glenn, but with their schedule, their ceiling is still seems like 6-11.

Imagn Images

"The Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North again"

The Ravens responded well to rookie coach Minter with a more active pass defense against the Colts, but their offense stole the show under new coordinator Declan Doyle, with Derrick Henry rushing for 144 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-23 road romp. Lamar Jackson also had a passing spike to 324 yards, getting big plays from Zay Flowers and the rest of his receivers.

Minter started off as the early coach of the year favorite for how inspired the Ravens played from wire-to-wire against an overmatched opponent. But at the same team, the Steelers put a 20-13 defensive statement on the Falcons and Bengals took care of the Buccaneers, 33-27. There's a three-way tie for first place in the division, indicating the North, save for the Browns, is flexing again.

The Ravens have a favorable upcoming schedule beyond the Colts, with the Saints, Cowboys, Titans and Falcons in the next four games. None of those teams are in the North, meaning the division is backloaded on the schedule. The first time they see the Bengals is Week 6 and they don't play the Steelers until Weeks 15 and 18. The North has a long compelling three-team battle ahead.

"The Browns will benefit from benching Deshaun Watson for Shedeur Sanders"

The only question regarding Cleveland in the 2026 season is tied to whether Watson or Sanders should be the starting quarterback, when neither is the right answer for 2027. Watson wasn't as bad as some might think with his play in the 34-10 lopsided loss against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Both QBs have been put in rarely win situations because of the team having a bunch of young receivers, a rebuilding line and ineffective committee running game. Dylan Sampson was hurt and Quinshon Judkins rushed for only 33 yards on 12 carries. Watson had to lead the team with his 38 rushing yards on 6 carries.

Also, the Myles Garrett-less defense was ripped to shreds with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 245 yards and 4 TDs and the Jaguars also rushing for 126 yards. The Browns had a non-existent pass rush and not much of anything else. No QB can succeed in this mess that offensive-minded Todd Monken accepted. Sanders will start at some point, but the results on the scoreboard won't change much.

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