21 hours ago
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Jaxson Dart has a big spot in front of him.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 15 slate.
Sunday
GIANTS -2.5 over Commanders
The Giants are coming off a bye week while the Commanders are banged up and without Jayden Daniels again this week. All signs should point to the Giants this week with Marcus Mariota starting under center for the Commanders and Big Blue gets another week healthier with Jaxson Dart as the starter. While the Giants were a joke against the Patriots, that game didn’t end as badly as you’d think. Giants roll.
Jets +13.5 over JAGUARS
Buy low and sell high. The Jets want to run the ball almost exclusively and that’s necessary given their quarterback situation. My model has this spread at 11 before the news that Brady Cook would start for Gang Green. The difference between Cook and Tyrod Taylor/Justin Fields could be worth a lot or a little, we really aren’t sure. Sell high on Jacksonville on the heels of a blowout against the Colts.
BENGALS +2.5 over Ravens
Cincinnati is playing better football and while losing Tee Higgins is a legitimate loss, I still think the Bengals can score a win at home this week. Joe Burrow, who is concerning everyone with some pretty negative thoughts about ‘still having fun’ playing football, is 8-1 in his past nine starts. Frankly, the Bengals should have beaten the Bills last week. Burrow is good enough to carry them here.
PATRIOTS +1 over Bills
Should the Patriots be underdogs here? The Bills defense just got crushed by the Bengals at home, now they travel to New England to deal with MVP contender Drake Maye. The second-year QB is about as close to Burrow as you can get. The Patriots are favored by one point on my model.
Browns +7.5 over BEARS
Shedeur Sanders is playing better, although I view the Titans defense as pretty despicable for allowing him to drive down the field for two fourth quarter touchdowns. Regardless, I’ll take the Browns here. The Bears are allowing the third-most yards per carry in the NFL, so Cleveland should look to keep Sanders reeled in by feeding Quinshon Judkins.
Chargers +6 over CHIEFS
There’s no way you can trust the Chiefs right now with these big numbers. Kansas City is toast when it comes to the playoffs, so I’m very hesitant to project them to beat legitimate playoff teams by a field goal or more. My model has the Chargers as two point underdogs, trust it and take Los Angeles at this number.
Raiders +11.5 over EAGLES
Geno Smith has been bad and with Kenny Pickett starting, it’s possible that this is an upgrade for Las Vegas. The Raiders’ offensive line is just a disaster and one that will have fits dealing with the Eagles’ front. They are missing Jalen Carter and the offense hasn’t really been the same without Lane Johnson.
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TEXANS -9.5 over Cardinals
Houston’s defense is suffocating and they’re still getting healthier. The Texans are nine point favorites according to my model, but since we’re getting under a key number of 10, we have to target the Texans here. The Cardinals have the 27th ranked offensive line per Pro Football Focus. The Texans roll this weekend as Jacoby Brissett takes too many sacks.
Packers -2.5 over BRONCOS
Green Bay is playing some of its best football this season right now. The Packers are four point favorites according to my model so this is where I want to rip them considering the Packers want to run the ball down Denver’s throat. The Broncos’ luck runs out against the Packers.
Lions +6 over RAMS
The No. 3 vs. No. 2 team in DVOA face off this week. I’ll take the points for Detroit even though the Rams are dominating most of the league right now. Neither team is a slouch and it’s tough to bet against MVP favorite Matthew Stafford. This is a big swing game for the Lions’ season and I think Dan Campbell plays this game very aggressively to get them a win.
SAINTS +2.5 over Panthers
My model has the Saints here as a value play and a complete coin flip in this game. The Panthers have played well and they did beat the Rams, but I’ll take Tyler Shough in a big spot for New Orleans. The Panthers are 25th in DVOA vs. 29th for the Saints. Where I’m extra bullish is the Saints allow just 4.1 yards per carry, 11th-best, which is key to Carolina’s success.
Titans +12.5 over 49ERS
Model play. My model has the Titans as just nine point underdogs this week so we’re clearing a key number of 10 and looking to get a close one at San Francisco. They’ve had an impossible schedule this season, but are playing a bit better of late. Tennessee is allowing 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games.
Colts +13.5 over SEAHAWKS
This line should have come down a little bit with Philip Rivers back at quarterback for the Colts. The 44 year old is really just there to run the offense, avoid getting hit, and suppress turnovers. I’ll take a shot at Rivers here at the big number considering the Colts won’t let Rivers make loads of mistakes that the Seahawks’ defense thrives on.
COWBOYS -6 over Vikings
Buy low on the Cowboys and sell high on the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy is still no good despite the win over the Commanders last week. Dallas is a legitimate playoff caliber team and I’m happy to grab the six here. My model has the Cowboys as 12 point favorites in this contest. The Cowboys are third in the NFL in yards per play over their past three games, and haven’t been as bad on defense either.
Monday
STEELERS -3 over Dolphins
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers can really grab a stranglehold on a playoff spot if the Ravens lose on Sunday. That’s a big opportunity for bettors as the Steelers are five point favorites on my model. Cold weather is an issue for for Tua Tagovailoa — temps at kickoff are expected to be in the low 20s — and the Steel City is tough to play in as any.
Last week: 5-8
Season: 91-93-4
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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