NFL MVP odds, predictions: Does Drake Maye have the inside track?

We’re entering Week 12 of the NFL season, which is a good time to check in on futures odds.

While Super Bowl odds and playoff odds are going to be popular dart plays at this point in the year, season-long awards markets are catching my eye.

At this point in the season, we’ve got a solid enough sample size with which to judge the key players who are entrenched in awards races and NFL MVP is shaping up to be one of the most interesting.

If you listen to the pundits, this race is fairly open: reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes and Jonathan Taylor all get mentioned in the conversation.

If you look at the betting odds, this is basically a two-man race.

2025 NFL MVP Odds

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the favorite across sportsbooks, with +140 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Trailing just behind Stafford is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who has +190 odds.

Josh Allen (+700) and Jonathan Taylor (+700) are the next-closest players on the odds board, but their individual paths to winning seem murky.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the NFL MVP betting favorite entering Week 12. AP

Allen led the NFL in QBR, ESPN’s quarterback metric, last season when he won MVP and this season he’s 12th. 

A running back hasn’t won NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Saquon Barkley came in a distant third in voting last season despite becoming the ninth player to rush for 2,000-plus yards.

Even at his current pace, Taylor wouldn’t reach Barkley’s mark, which doesn’t give me much hope that he would fare better in the voting.

Stafford is having a resurgent campaign in L.A. for his 17th season after flirting with leaving the Rams for the Giants this past offseason. (Turns out, it was a smart move to steer clear of the G-Men.)

Stafford leads the league in passing touchdowns with 27 scores through the air to just two interceptions entering Week 12. His Rams are 8-2, tied for the best record in the NFC, with a +100 point differential that ranks third in the NFL behind the Seahawks (+101) and Colts (+115). Not a bad resume at all.

Drake Maye is in his second NFL season, but he’s playing like someone with 17 years worth of experience. Maye is fourth in the NFL with 20 passing touchdowns, but he leads the NFL in passing yards (2,836) and completion percentage (71.9%).

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His Patriots are 9-2 in the AFC, tied for the best record and have won eight straight games. Pretty impressive for team that lost to the Raiders at home to open the season.

The home stretch will determine which of these two quarterbacks can take a decisive lead in the MVP race and my money is on the young buck.

The Patriots have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon. Their two toughest games left are against the Bills and the Ravens. Their four other games are against the Bengals, Giants, Jets and Dolphins, four of the bottom-10 pass defenses in the NFL.

The Rams have a slightly easier strength of schedule, but still have to face the Buccaneers, Falcons, Seahawks and Lions, who rank among the top 10 teams in sacks.

Stafford has done well to avoid getting dropped this season, but Maye has the easier path.

It’s entirely possible that Maye surpasses Stafford as the favorite with the Bengals and Giants up next on the schedule. Unless he completely falls apart down the stretch, betting him to win MVP at +190 might be the best value on the board.

BET: Drake Maye to win MVP (+190, Caesars)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.