NFL divisional playoff picks against the spread: Seahawks nip 49ers, Broncos buck Bills, Bears upset Rams

The NFL playoff field has been whittled down to eight teams, four each in the NFC and AFC, in the tournament ahead of Super Bowl 60. The league quarterfinals, better known as the divisional round, have a little of everything — a three-match, two top-seed underdogs and several marquee franchises.

The No. 1 seeds, the Seahawks and Broncos, enter the action this week. The No. 2s are looking strong, but the No. 3s are gone.

After an apt and unpredictable wild-card weekend, here's diving into another round of game picks and predictions against the spread:

MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFFS:

• Full NFL playoff schedule
• Updated NFL playoff bracket
• Divisional picks, predictions straight up
• NFL playoff power rankings, 1-8

NFL divisional playoff picks against the spread

• Bills (-1, 46.5 o/u) at Broncos

Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+

Denver isn't getting respected as a No. 1 seed with Buffalo being favorites as a No. 6 seed. That will be some bulletin-board material for Sean Payton's team, which has the defense to give Josh Allen more trouble on the road than Jacksonville did.

The Bills' defensive holes will show up more with a game Bo Nix and the Broncos will avoid their usual slow offensive start. Allen can do only so much to save his team and Nix leans on having the better all-around system and coaching.

Pick: Broncos win 27-24.

MORE BILLS-JAGUARS NEWS:

• Josh Allen's two rushing TDs power Bills past Jaguars
• Trevor Lawrence's interception woes continue in loss to Bills
• 3 reasons why Josh Allen, Bills passed their toughest AFC test

• 49ers at Seahawks (-7.5, 45.5 o/u)

Saturday 8 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers overachieved with their injury-riddled defense in Philadelphia to advance to this rubber match in Seattle, as the 49ers won there in Week 1 and the Seahawks won in San Francisco in Week 18. The Seahawks are rested and ready, with their defense, running game and Sam Darnold set up to better produce in this game than the 49ers, now that Brock Purdy is without tight end George Kittle again.

The 49ers will dig deep with Christian McCaffrey and their wide receivers to stay competitive, but if the Seahawks protect the ball at home, they should take control of the game and outscore them. 

Pick: Seahawks win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: How 49ers brought back the Philly special vs. Eagles

• Texans at Patriots (-2.5, 41 o/u)

Sunday 3 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

The Texans' running game and defense carried them in a sloppy game for C.J. Stroud's passing in Pittsburgh. Now Stroud is challenged to help them put up a lot more points with a good chance that top wide receiver Nico Collins won't be cleared from concussion protocol on a short week.

The Patriots' offense got off to a tough start vs. the Chargers, but warmed up well near the end. Drake Maye will be well prepared to make big plays by Josh McDaniels for the tough Texans' test, while Mike Vrabel will rely on his past big playoff experience to get the better of DeMeco Ryans.

Pick: Patriots win 24-17 and cover the spread.

MORE STEELERS-TEXANS NEWS:

• Texans defense stifles Aaron Rodgers, Steelers in wild-card win 
• Will Mike Tomlin, Steelers part ways after another first-round playoff exit?
• How Steelers failed to take advantage of C.J. Stroud turnovers

• Rams (-3.5, 51 o/u) at Bears

Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

The Rams played some sloppy, undisciplined defense in Carolina and needed every bit of a banged-up Matthew Stafford being relentless in the passing game. The Bears' defense can fold against the Rams' running game and also give up some big pass plays downfield.

Chicago will try to keep this game manageable until the fourth-quarter, when Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson save their best quarterbacking and coaching for last. They also will be aggressive and hungry for key takeaways from Stafford. There's also real concern on how effective Stafford can be with snow, wind and other weather elements in play. The Bears' will grind this game out with their running game and the turnover battle with Williams delivering the game-winning drive.

Pick: Bears win 24-21.

MORE EAGLES-49ERS NEWS:

• What's next for Kevin Patullo, A.J. Brown and more Eagles in 2026
• Best candidates to be Eagles' next coach, from Kliff Kingsbury to Mike McDaniel

Stats of the Week 

• Wild-card playoffs record straight up: 3-3
• Wild-card playoffs record against the spread: 3-3
• 2025-2026 season record straight up: 168-106
• 2025-2026 season record against the spread: 135-139