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There are two home underdogs in the NFL divisional playoff round – including the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The two favorites - the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams – were my Super Bowl picks coming into the playoffs. Can both teams win on the road again?
Buffalo takes on the Denver Broncos on Saturday in the AFC divisional playoffs. That game will be followed by the third matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.
On Sunday, the Rams travel to Soldier Field to face the Bears. The Pittsburgh Steelers/Houston Texans then meet the New England Patriots in the other Sunday matchup.
Which four teams will advance to championship weekend? Here are Sporting News' picks for the divisional round (odds courtesy of Caesars)
MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFFS:
NFL playoff picks, predictions for 2025 divisional games
- Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., CBS
The Broncos were 8-1 S/U at home this season, have a distinct home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High, and they allow the fewest yards per game (278.2 yards per game). Sean Payton has built this team around defense and efficient play from Bo Nix. Denver allowed 17.8 points per game at home, but that comes with an even turnover ratio.
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Why are the Bills being picked? It's the Josh Allen factor. Buffalo is 3-4 S/U when he is sacked three or more times in a game this season. Allen had 306 total yards and three TDs at Jacksonville – and he took one sack. The Bills won the turnover battle, and that will be the same recipe for success against Denver. Buffalo beat the Broncos 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card round last season. This is a chance for Nix to earn his first playoff victory, but we're sticking with our Super Bowl pick.
Pick: Bills 26, Broncos 2
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox
It's the third matchup between the NFC West rivals. Seattle beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 – a game that clinched home-field advantage. The Seahawks had 181 passing yards and 180 rushing yards in that game – a perfect balance of time management and efficient play from Sam Darnold. This is a huge game for Darnold, who is 28-6 as a starter in the regular season the last two years but 0-1 in the playoffs. He's averaged 174 passing yards with no TDs and no interceptions in the two matchups with the 49ers this season.
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San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is 5-2 in the playoffs and played through the mistakes – and losing tight end George Kittle – in the 23-19 victory at Philadelphia in the NFC Wild Card round. Purdy has taken two sacks or less in those seven playoff starts. The 49ers will lean on Christian McCaffrey – and the yards will be tough against the top rushing defense in the NFC. San Francisco also didn't have tackle Trent Williams in the Week 18 matchup. It's going to be a tighter matchup this time – and look for Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba – who averaged 104 receiving yards in the two regular-season games – to make a few game-changing plays when it matters. Darnold gets his first playoff victory.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-2.5)
Sunday, 3 p.m., ESPN
This game is all about defense with coaches DeMeco Ryans and Mike Vrabel. Two of the NFL's top-five scoring defenses will go to work, and that will put the pressure on quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye. Texans receiver Nico Collins left in the second half against Pittsburgh after taking a hard hit – and his status will need to be monitored throughout the week.
Houston had a plus-11 turnover ratio through a nine-game winning streak to end the regular season, and they survived three turnovers in a 30-6 blowout at Pittsburgh. This defense proved it can go on the road, and the edge pressure will test Maye. He took five sacks in the 16-3 in the Wild Card victory against the Chargers, but he also had 66 rushing yards.
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New England has allowed less than 200 yards 11 times, and they had six sacks against the Chargers. The Patriots are 6-2 S/U when favored by a touchdown or less. Can they force enough mistakes from Stroud to advance to the AFC championship game? It is a tight game to the finish, but Maye makes enough plays in the clutch to keep the Patriots alive.
Pick: Patriots 21, Texans 20
- Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 6;30 p.m., NBC
The Bears' dream season continued in a 31-27 victory against the Packers. Can first-year coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams push Chicago to the NFC championship game? Chicago is 4-2 S/U and 4-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 points or less, and the losses were to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Williams had a 97.6 QB rating with 15 TDs and two interceptions at home during the regular season, and he owns a 94.3 QB rating in the fourth quarter. The Bears just continue to find a way in those late-game situations.
Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a finger injury in the 34-31 thriller at Carolina. The Rams' prolific offense with Stafford is clicking with receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who combined for 16 catches for 183 yards against the Panthers. Los Angeles averages one turnover per game on the road – and that number needs to stay there. The Rams have given up 30-plus points in three of their last four games – and that is an area of concern on the road. Los Angeles was 5-2 S/U and 4-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Pick: Rams 28, Bears 24
Season stats
Regular-season S/U: 170-101-1
Wild card S/U: 5-1
Regular-season ATS: 127-142-3
Wild Card ATS: 5-1
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