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It's anyone's guess as to what actually happens on Thursday's NBA trade deadline. There are so many rumors leading up to the date that it becomes nearly impossible to separate fact from fiction. What if we asked AI to sort through the rumor mill instead of the NBA newsbreakers who gaze through their crystal balls (and talk to actual people)?
AI has been a game-changer in various different industries. Let's see how it performs in predicting what NBA general managers will do. I asked X's AI bot Grok to go through its training data, which includes tweets from all of the big NBA insiders, and see what some of the teams with the most interesting decisions were considering via the trade market. Here's what it said.
NOH: Ten players most likely to be moved during trade deadline week
Lakers top trade targets: Naji Marshall, Herb Jones
The Lakers are a team with a lot of needs heading into the deadline. Deandre Ayton has been serviceable, but they could certainly upgrade from him. The biggest issue though is the team's overall defense, which ranks 25th in the league. They need serious help in getting some more athletic stoppers if they want to make any noise in the playoffs.
Los Angeles has been thrown around in some big trade rumors. Grok thinks that a more minor move is coming.
"My prediction: The Lakers will likely make one modest trade for a cost-controlled 3-and-D wing to bolster their playoff push, rather than a major overhaul or standing completely pat," Grok wrote.
Grok cited multiple reports that indicate the Lakers prioritizing cap flexibility for a potential summer splash (e.g., pursuing Giannis Antetokounmpo or another star once their three first-round picks become fully tradable post-draft). That makes a lot of sense, given that LeBron James' $52.6 million salary is coming off the books and the Lakers will have more wiggle room to make moves.
As far as targets go, Grok gave three scenarios from most to least likely.
1. Acquire Naji Marshall from the Mavs (Grok estimates a 45 percent probability)
Grok cited Marshall's familiarity with Luka Doncic from their shared Mavericks days, along with his low cost and versatility.
This prediction makes a lot of sense. The Mavericks are struggling this season, and trading off their veterans is their best course of action. Marshall would be an easy target given his $9 million salary. He could bring the defensive toughness that the team is missing, although he hasn't shot the ball well from 3 in the past few seasons.
2. Do nothing (35 percent probability)
Grok thought there was a decent likelihood that the Lakers would try to preserve their assets in order to make a run at Giannis or some other superstar over the summer, when they have more financial flexibility and draft picks to work with.
They will have some big decisions to make, namely what to do with Austin Reaves who will likely decline his player option and get a huge payday.
3. Land Herb Jones from the Pelicans (20 percent probability)
Jones is one of the best wing defenders in the league, so it makes sense that Grok would target him for the Lakers. Grok cited the "sky-high asking price" as a reason why this deal probably doesn't get done.
Grok predicted a price of Rui Hachimura, Dalton Knecht, and a first-round pick. That almost certainly wouldn't be enough to get the Pelicans to say yes. Keep dreaming, Grok.
Warriors top trade targets: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trey Murphy III, Nic Claxton
After Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL injury, the Warriors aren't doing much this season unless they make a big trade. Grok predicts that they will do exactly that, entering the Giannis sweepstakes. Here are its three most likely scenarios for Golden State.
1. Acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo from the Bucks (40 percent chance)
Grok cited Giannis as the Warriors' prime target for years, with insiders noting that they have expressed firm interest. It put together a package of Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, three unprotected picks, and a pick swap in exchange for the Bucks star.
Grok certainly isn't the first to think that Giannis might go to Golden State. The package it puts together though has issues. It's not close to legal, given that those three players make $26 million less than Giannis.
The Warriors could trade for Giannis, but they would have to include Butler as the matching salary. So far, they have indicated that they are unwilling to consider that option.
Grok does think that the most likely Giannis option is for him to stay put. It cites insiders like Brian Windhorst and Doc Rivers emphasizing that the Bucks aren't aggressively shopping him yet, along with the fact that they have no incentive to tank this year.
If Giannis does get moved, Grok thinks that the Heat, Knicks, Wolves, Bulls, and Hawks are likely landing spots along with the Warriors.
2. Trade Jonathan Kuminga for Trey Murphy III from the Pelicans (35 percent chance)
Kuminga is one of the likeliest players to get traded. He demanded a trade on Jan. 15, but there has been little interest in his services. Grok found a suitor in the Pelicans, who would be more interested in the protected first-round pick that it included in its fake trade.
This is another one where Grok swings and misses. Murphy would be an excellent addition for the Warriors given his two-way play, athleticism, youth, and shooting. It would cost much more than Kuminga and a protected first-rounder to acquire him though.
Golden State would have to add another small salary like Podziemski in order to make it legal, along with several first-round picks.
3. Land a defensive big like Nicolas Claxton from the Nets (25 percent chance)
Golden State has been perpetually undersized throughout the past several seasons. Getting a defensive big man would make sense in that regard, lessening the load on an aging Draymond Green.
Claxton is a nice target for the Warriors. He's a good passer, a great rim protector, and a switchable big who would fit nicely into their aggressive defensive system.
Grok also suggests Daniel Gafford and Robert Williams as targets. All of those names make sense. They're good plug-and-play big men who shouldn't cost an arm and a leg to get.
Grok again uses Kuminga as trade bait in these deals, along with Moses Moody and a second round pick. That is at least in the realm of possibility, but the Warriors would likely have to add a little more draft equity to get a deal done.
Knicks top trade targets: Ayo Dosunmu, standing pat
The Knicks enter the trade deadline in a tough spot. They're a good team, but they don't look like they can win the championship as presently constructed. They have too many defensive weak links in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. And they're not playing to the potential that they showed last season under former head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Grok doesn't have any big answers, but it has some ideas on how to improve on the margins along with a prediction on what the Knicks will actually do. Here are its three most likely scenarios.
1. Trade Guerschon Yabusele and/or other depth pieces away (50 percent chance)
Yabusele came into the year with expectations of being a solid rotation contributor after a good year with the Sixers and a great showing at the 2024 Olympics for France. Grok pointed out that he hasn't fit in well. It thinks that the Knicks could move him, Pacome Dadiet, Jordan Clarkson, Tyler Kolek, and Ariel Hukporti.
I agree with Grok that most of those pieces could go out. Kolek shouldn't be among those names though after showing some real promise as a quality backup point guard in more minutes this season.
Grok suggested that the Knicks should acquire second-round picks in exchange for those players. It seems unlikely that any of them could fetch that price. The Knicks are projected to have a $46 million tax bill, so getting off Yabusele's $5 million could save them some money. He seems like the likeliest player to actually get dealt.
2. Stand pat and focus on buyouts and the offseason (35 percent chance)
This should be the most likely outcome for the Knicks. They don't have any real first-round picks to trade, so they probably can't make any big moves.
Grok notes that the Knicks have been linked to Giannis, but trading for him would gut the roster and they still wouldn't have enough draft capital to win a bidding war.
That is correct. It would take moving Towns and one of Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby to even come close to a deal. The Knicks are already a shallow team as far as depth. Trading two key starters for one player, even one as good as Antetokounmpo, would be a tough pill to swallow.
Grok notes that Jevon Carter was recently waived from the Bulls and could be a good buyout target. The veteran guard is undersized, but he is a physical defender who can shoot open 3's.
3. Acquire a backup guard like Ayo Dosunmu from the Bulls (15 percent chance)
Dosunmu is rumored to be available for the Bulls. He'd be a nice fit as a much better point-of-attack defender than Brunson and a good off-ball threat given his 46 percent shooting from 3 this season.
Grok likes him more for his ballhanding, which he does a little bit in Chicago. It says that the price may be high, suggesting Miles McBride and second round picks as a basis for a deal. It also named Naji Marshall or Saddiq Bey as backup targets.
McBride has been a solid player for the Knicks this year. Moving him for Dosunmu seems like a lateral move, as they are similar players. Marshall and Bey both make sense as low cost players who are good enough to be at the end of the team's playoff rotation. Neither are really moving the needle much for New York though.
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