NBA insider gives LeBron James 99% chance of leaving Lakers for Cavaliers with one catch

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One of the biggest storylines surrounding LeBron James is what his future holds. While he’s set to finish this season with the Los Angeles Lakers, chasing a fifth NBA championship alongside Luka Doncic, he still hasn’t decided when he wants to call it a career.

Could he retire after this season? Absolutely. But that doesn’t seem like a decision James would make just yet — he’s earned the right to a farewell tour, like Kobe Bryant and other NBA superstars have had over their careers.

If James plans to play next year, he would be testing unrestricted free agency this offseason, with a real possibility of leaving the Lakers. The team most frequently mentioned in rumors? The Cleveland Cavaliers — which would mark James’ third stint with the organization.

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On Wednesday, during an appearance on ESPN Cleveland, Brian Windhorst revealed that if James is willing to accept the major pay cut the Cavaliers could offer, he’s “99%” certain James would return to Cleveland.

“Number one, you look at how productive he is. Assuming he’s roughly the same player next year as he is now — when his legs feel good, he’s still highly impactful," Windhorst said. "He’s not great defensively, especially on nights when he doesn’t have it, but on nights when he does, he can still be a playmaker on both ends.

“The second thing is he would only come at a discount. The only way the Cavs could add him is to get him to play at either the minimum or maybe do some moves to create flexibility with the tax mid-level exception… From the Cavs’ perspective, it’s simple. Basically they say to LeBron: if you want to play with us, this is what we can offer. If he’s able and willing to accept that, I think it’s 99%.”

"If he's able and willing, and is willing to accept that money, I think it's 99%," - @WindhorstESPN on LeBron James and the Cavs.

Windy notes that LeBron would have to probably accept a minimum contract in Cleveland. pic.twitter.com/8uszTssn9H

— ESPN Cleveland (@ESPNCleveland) February 18, 2026

James isn’t the same player he was during his last stint with the Cavaliers in 2018, but even at 41, he’s still an All-Star-caliber talent.

This season, he’s averaging 22.0 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 50.2% from the field and 30.5% from three-point range.

Cleveland also appears to have the backing of their superstar Donovan Mitchell regarding a potential addition of James next season.

“As a Bron fan, to be able to be a teammate, that would be special... it’s LeBron James,” Mitchell said.

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