NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Which team has best chance to land Cooper Flagg?

Tonight, the NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago will determine which team secures the coveted No. 1 pick, with Duke’s Cooper Flagg widely projected as the top prize. 

Fourteen teams, each missing the 2025 playoffs, are vying for the chance to reshape their franchise, with odds based on their 2024-25 regular-season records. The Utah Jazz (17-65), Washington Wizards (18-64), and Charlotte Hornets (19-63) lead with the highest probability at 14% each, reflecting their status as the league’s three worst performers. 

The New Orleans Pelicans (21-61) follow closely at 12.5%, while the Philadelphia 76ers (24-58) hold a 10.5% chance, though their pick is top-6 protected and could convey to Oklahoma City if it falls outside that range.

The Brooklyn Nets (26-56) have a 9% shot, and the Toronto Raptors (30-52) sit at 7.5%. The San Antonio Spurs (34-48) have a 6% chance with their own pick and an additional 0.7% via the Atlanta Hawks’ pick from the Dejounte Murray trade. 

Lower odds belong to the Houston Rockets (3.8%, via Phoenix Suns), Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%), Dallas Mavericks (1.8%), and Chicago Bulls (1.7%). 

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The Sacramento Kings (40-42) have the slimmest chance at 0.8%, with their pick top-12 protected and potentially conveying to Atlanta if it falls outside that range.

While the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets have the best shot, history shows surprises are possible, as seen when New Orleans landed Zion Williamson with 6% odds in 2019.

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