MLB Player Props: Picks and Best Bets for Wednesday, May 14 Games

We split our MLB player prop wagers yesterday, to run our weekly record to 1-3. Wednesday’s as good a day as any to start a new winning streak, and there are plenty of options to like on today’s MLB player props menu.

We had success fading the dreadful Pirates lineup yesterday, and they showed no signs of suggesting they’re turning things around anytime soon. That puts Mets starter Clay Holmes on our radar, who’s on pace for the most successful season of his big league career.

MLB Player Prop Picks for May 14

Clay Holmes Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

We’re betting under 1.5 earned runs for Holmes, as he looks to replicate Kodai Senga’s success from Tuesday. Senga struck out 7 Pittsburgh batters over 5.2 innings, yielding only a single run. The Pirates whiffed 11 times in total and entered play as the worst-hitting lineup in baseball.

Pittsburgh is last in scoring, and second last in slugging and OPS. They’re slashing .206/.295/.294 over the last two weeks, striking out at a 26% clip. The Pirates are averaging only 2 runs per game during that stretch, and don’t boast a single positional player on their roster with a WAR above 0.9.

As for Holmes, he’s surrendered one run or less in five of his last seven starts. He’s holding enemy lineups to a .234/.309/.291 slash line, and a .197 batting average at home. The 32-year-old’s home run rate is a career-low 0.6%, while his 25% strikeout rate is one of the best marks of his MLB tenure.

Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Walks (-115 at DraftKings)

Sticking with pitcher props, we’re taking a rare dip in the walks market. That’s where we’re betting over 1.5 base on balls for San Diego’s Randy Vasquez, who’s struggled badly with his control all season.

Through eight starts, Vazquez has seven more walks (25) than strikeouts (18). His 14.5% walk rate is the worst mark of his career, and one of the highest rates in baseball. He’s allowed two or more base on balls in seven of eight starts, surrendering at least three walks in five of those outings.

A big reason for Vaszquez’s struggles this season is due to the fact that he can’t generate wings and misses. His swinging strike rate is only 6.4%, which is one of the lowest clips in MLB.

Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits (+105 at DraftKings)

Our final bet is a fade of Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. The 30-year-old is hitting an MLB-low 0.88 so far in May, going 3-for-34. He’s been held hitless in seven of nine contests and has a brutal history against Minnesota starter Bailey Ober.

Mullins is 1-for-7 lifetime versus Ober with 3 strikeouts. His .229 batting average is the worst of his career, and his struggles against Minnesota go beyond just facing Ober. Mullins is 0-for-8 against Twins pitching this season, with a 50% strikeout rate.