Mets vs. Giants prediction: MLB picks, odds, best bet Friday

We are only seven games into the new MLB season, but the Mets could really use a win on Friday night.

The Amazins have dropped three in a row, the offense is sputtering, and Francisco Lindor is one of a handful of players in Flushing feeling some pressure from the fanbase and media.

Early April is no time to panic, but given how the Mets ended 2025, a win over the Giants on Friday night would go a long way to calm the waters in Queens.

The Mets are -130 favorites to get the job done in San Francisco.

Mets vs. Giants odds, prediction

Nolan McLean is set to start for the Mets, looking to build off an encouraging first outing against the Pirates last week.

McLean was tagged for two earned runs on four hits in five innings, but he had his stuff working, striking out eight of the 22 batters he faced.

McLean’s opposite number Friday, Tyler Mahle, was less effective in his first Giants outing.

The veteran right-hander only lasted four innings, surrendering two runs on five hits and a walk, while striking out five against the Yankees.

It’s just one start, but it is worth noting that the 31-year-old looked like a prime regression candidate after last season with the Rangers.

Rafael Devers of the Giants is rounding the bases. AP

On the surface, Mahle’s numbers looked strong. He posted a 2.18 ERA in 86 2/3 innings and allowed only five home runs all season.

Under the hood, things looked less promising. Mahle’s xERA was 4.23, his xFIP was 4.43 and his batted-ball data was pedestrian.

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As long as the Mets aren’t pressing, they should be able to find success against Mahle; meanwhile, they’ve got a starting pitcher on the hill who should be able to hold the Giants in check.

This seems like a good buy-low spot on the Mets as a slight favorite.

The Play: Mets ML (-130, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.