Mariners given coin-flip odds to trade 3.26 ERA starting pitcher

The Seattle Mariners have recently become one of the teams to watch at the 2026 MLB trade deadline. They've struggled a bit as of late as a team, and could be looking to shake it up before the deadline.

While Luis Castillo is one trade option, and recently both George Kirby and Randy Arozarena have become legitimate options to go in a deal, Emerson Hancock is one of the top names to monitor this summer.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel, Hancock has a coin-flip chance of being traded. There's a 50% chance that Hancock is on the move, and there are sure to be plenty of clubs that would be willing to spend a ton to acquire him as well.

Mariners have 50% chance of trading Emerson Hancock

"Chance of being traded: 50%," Passan and McDaniel write. "The Mariners' dreadful beginning to the second half has changed their calculus slightly. And although their appetite for aggressively adding has waned, Seattle eventually will need to address its starting pitching surplus. Flipping Hancock could be the easiest way to satisfy that."

The Mariners have a six-man rotation, with a pair of young pitching prospects inching closer to the big leagues. So, trading from the rotation would make a lot of sense.

While Castillo and Kirby are potential trade targets, Hancock, the 27-year-old right-handed starter, might be the most appealing for other clubs.

He's under club control the longest, not hitting free agency until after the 2030 season. He has also been the best pitcher this year, posting a 3.26 ERA in 20 starts with 2.5 bWAR on the year.

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That combination of talent and control makes him very appealing. He might be one of the best starting pitchers available in a year where a ton of great starters are likely to be on the move, including Tarik Skubal.

Seeing what happens with Hancock might be the most interesting thing for Seattle at this year's deadline. He could either bring back a serious prospect package or help the Mariners instantly upgrade their offense with a big-league hitter.

Still, the odds of a Hancock trade, according to ESPN, are only 50%. Though a coin flip does leave open the door to a trade, so Mariners fans can't rule out a Hancock deal until Monday, August 3 MLB trade deadline passes.

More MLB news:

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• Phillies intrigued by Blue Jays trade idea for Jeff Hoffman and Daulton Varsho
• Astros among teams calling Giants about Logan Webb’s trade availability
• Yankees linked to Padres for potential rotation for bullpen swap
• Diamondbacks linked to Nationals’ Luis Garcia Jr. as perfect trade fit