March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 11 seed is most likely to win in first round?

The play-in games will determine half of the No. 11 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

No. 11 Texas (18-14) takes on No. 11 NC State (20-13) on Tuesday in the West Region. The winner will play No. 6 BYU (23-11). 

No. 11 Miami, Ohio (31-1) faces No. 11 SMU (20-13) in the other First Four matchup on Wednesday. The winner will face No. 6 Tennessee (22-11) in the Midwest Region.

SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

No. 11 South Florida (25-8) faces No. 6 Louisville (23-10) in the East Region. No. 11 VCU (27-7) takes on No. 6 North Carolina (24-8) in the South Region. 

The No. 11 seed is 62-98 in the first round — a winning percentage of .388. NC State made a run to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed in 2024. Drake won as a No. 11 seed last season.

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(Odds courtesy of Caesars)

March Madness upset predictions 2026

No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville

Odds: Louisville -5.5

Why this can happen: The Bulls won the American Conference and are the only conference tournament champion on the No. 11 line. Is that too much disrespect? Wes Enis averaged 24.8 points in South Florida's last four victories. South Florida is also on a 10-game win streak heading into the tournament. Louisville has split its last six games, which explains the short line. 

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina

Odds: North Carolina -2.5 

Why this can happen: The Rams have emerged as one of the trendy sleepers in the tournament under coach Phil Martelli Jr. VCU is a No. 11 seed for the second straight season, and they have just one loss since Jan. 14. The Rams have a balanced scoring attack with seven players who average at least seven points, and that will test North Carolina. The key will be slowing down 7-foot senior forward Henri Veesaar, who averages 16.7 points and 8.7 rebounds. 

No. 11 Miami (Ohio)/No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Tennessee

Odds: TBD

Why this can happen: SMU is a 7.5-point favorite to beat the RedHawks in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs are making their first tournament appearance under Andy Enfield, who was a tournament regular at USC and had that famed 'Dunk City' Sweet 16 run at Florida Gulf Coast. The RedHawks are in the spotlight after finishing the regular season with an unbeaten record. Miami ranks second in the nation in scoring with 90.7 points per game. The winner gets Tennessee, who is 6-1 in the first round under Rick Barnes.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

No. 11 NC State/No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU

Odds: TBD

Why this can happen: NC State and Texas is a pick'em matchup. The Longhorns have lost five of six games under coach Sean Miller. Dailyn Swain – who followed from Xavier – scored 27 points in a first-round tournament loss against Illinois last season. NC State made the tournament under first-year coach Will Wade. The Wolfpack also have lost five of their last six games. The winner draws BYU and freshman forward AJ Dybantsa, who led the nation with 25.3 points per game. 

IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South

Which 11 seed is the best bet for an upset?

We need to see the First Four matchups first. NC State is an interesting sleeper if it can get hot from the 3-point line. The Wolfpack rank 12th in the nation in 3-point percentage at 38.8% percent. That could test BYU, which is without Richie Saunders for the tournament. 

All eyes will be on Miami (Ohio) and SMU to see if the RedHawks can validate their selection as one of the last teams in the field. Tennessee allowed 69.4 points per game this season, so they will be a tough matchup either way. South Florida is a hot team at the right time, which will make for an interesting matchup against the Cardinals. 

VCU, however, is the best of the bunch. The Rams lost 80-71 in the first round to BYU last season, and that tournament experience should help against a North Carolina team that is missing freshman Caleb Wilson. It's still not an easy matchup, but the Tar Heels commit 14.6 fouls per game– the 17th most in the nation. If VCU can get to the basket, this will be a tight game late. If the Rams win that one – then a potential second-round matchup against Illinois could be fun.