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This may not be the year of the Cinderella in college basketball.
The teams at the top of the sport are as dominant as ever, and last year's NCAA Tournament served as a reminder that the gap between those at the top and everyone else can be quite large.
The whole idea of an upset, though, is the unlikeliness of the result. Some don't envision many early-round upsets this year, but that disbelief is what makes an upset a true upset. Some surprise teams will inevitably get hot once the adrenaline of March kicks in, while others could crumble under the pressure.
Which games are primed for upset watch? Here's a look at the teams that could bust your bracket.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket
March Madness upset predictions 2026
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
"No one wants to face this team" is a common line when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed, but that is absolutely true about South Florida. The Bulls, with an excellent coach in Bryan Hodgson, have won 17 of their last 19 games and haven't lost by more than one possession since mid-December. USF has experience and continuity, as much of its core followed Hodgson over from a good Arkansas State team before this season.
The Bulls got a bit of a tough draw, as Louisville entered the season as a consensus top-10 team and still has that talent, but the Cardinals have looked vulnerable of late. Star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. hasn't been able to consistently stay on the court, and Louisville is just 1-8 in Quad 1A games. USF's fast pace could be jarring for Louisville, which didn't look ready for the opening round last season, and the Bulls could win outright as 5.5-point underdogs if they play anything like they have over the last two months.
No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Nebraska is favored by 13.5 points against Troy. While a Trojan win might be far-fetched, the upset potential here is much more real than the odds indicate.
Sometimes, the best way to evaluate a double-digit seed's chances of pulling an upset is simple: just look at how they have performed against higher-level competition. Troy beat San Diego State, Akron and UAB, and USC needed a multi-overtime miracle to beat this team in Southern California. While the Trojans hit some surprise bumps in the Sun Belt and have seven Quad 3 losses, a 3-1 record in Quad 1-2 games isn't something to ignore.
Nebraska's offense has been much less consistent of late, aided by struggles from Rienk Mast. Troy can likely only win a game that becomes ugly, as its offense isn't strong to begin with and is facing a tough Cornhuskers perimeter defense, but making this game ugly is a serious possibility.
No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Akron, an underdog by 7.5 points, will be a popular upset pick ahead of the first round. With JT Toppin out for Texas Tech, the door is open.
The Zips entered last year's tournament coming off a terrific season in the MAC and got blown out by Arizona. Why could this year be different? Akron's defense, while still not particularly great, ranks 70 spots higher in efficiency than it did a year ago, and the offense remains strong while led by senior star Tavari Johnson. The Zips are even more experienced this year, and they aren't facing an Arizona team that was able to hang more than 90 points on Duke last season.
Texas Tech can still reach the second weekend without Toppin, but the Red Raiders are forced to live and die by the 3-pointer a bit more, with Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell the focal points of their offense. After three consecutive losses entering the tournament, Texas Tech's vulnerability is real. Whether it shows against Akron or in the second round is a mystery.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
No. 11 NC State/Texas vs. No. 6 BYU
BYU collected itself over the season's final two weeks after losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL, but it got rough there for a little while. Saunders is an excellent scorer, but he was also the experienced glue that held together a team headlined by a pair of inexperienced players in AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright III.
From a talent standpoint, Dybantsa and Wright could be the two best talents on the floor against either NC State or Texas. Finding offense outside of that duo could be difficult, though. Both the Wolfpack and Longhorns have struggled on the defensive end but have the offense and the depth to keep up with Dybantsa and Wright, particularly if BYU can't find that third option. Whether you call it an upset or not, the Cougars could be in line for an early exit.
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Kentucky has to survive Santa Clara in the first round, but if that happens, the Wildcats have a chance to reach a second consecutive Sweet 16 against a streaky Iowa State team.
The Cyclones, at times, looked like a legitimate Final Four-caliber team this season. At other times, their offense mystifyingly went quiet. The result was still far more good than bad, but it's worth noting T.J. Otzelberger's team has lost one round earlier than their seed indicates in the last three tournaments, falling in the first round as a 6-seed in 2023, the Sweet 16 as a 2-seed in 2024 and the second round as a 6-seed in 2025.
Mark Pope doesn't have the depth he would like due to a litany of injuries, but Kentucky has players who have been here before in Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen, plus impressive young pieces in Collin Chandler and big man Malachi Moreno. It's been enough for recent wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri, and it could be just enough to give Iowa State a serious challenge.
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn
If UCLA is healthy, this might not even be considered an upset. The health of Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent is most important after Big Ten Tournament injuries, which the Bruins say won't affect their availability for the NCAA Tournament, but UCLA has been playing like a 4- or 5-seed of late. The same could be said of UConn, which settled into a 2-seed but recently lost to Marquette and wasn't competitive against St. John's in the Big East Tournament title game.
Something about UConn has looked off at times this season, and a stronger Big East might have exposed it earlier. UCLA would have to face UConn in a tough environment in Philadelphia, but the team playing better, more sound basketball right now is Mick Cronin's. A 7-2 upset could be brewing in the East.
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