March Madness prop bets: The best odds for 2026 NCAA Tournament winners, 12-5 upsets, more

Selection Sunday is in the rearview mirror — and now, it's time to make your picks.

Everybody loves a March Madness Cinderella story, but some years, including 2025, are dominated by the favorites. Last year's tournament was one of just two all-time that featured all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. But in a field of 68 teams, anything can happen.

There's bound to be upsets all over. The question is, especially for betters: which lower seeds can pull off deep runs? The 12-5 first-round matchups typically provide the best range for realistic upset potential with betting value. If you're looking for some March Madness champion sleepers, the best 12 seed to pick in the first round, or a potential Cinderella team, you can find plenty of that insight below.

Here's a breakdown of some of the best 2026 March Madness prop bets, including some longshot teams that could make a run.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket

March Madness prop bets 2026

All odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Which 12 vs. 5 seed upsets are the best bets?

• Akron (+260) vs. Texas Tech
• High Point (+370) vs. Wisconsin
• Northern Iowa (+440) vs. St. John's
• McNeese (+455) vs. Vanderbilt

Compared to some NCAA Tournaments in recent past, there aren't as many attractive picks for a 12 vs. 5 upset. But then again, they typically aren't very predictable. 

In this year's group, both McNeese and Northern Iowa are the steeper underdogs among the 12-5 matchups, and that's a reason: they got tough matchups. St. John's has been cruising lately, winning the Big East title thanks to one of the best defenses in the country. Rick Pitino's unit would have to have a significant off day for Northern Iowa (+440) to compete in the first round.

As for McNeese (+455), it's also tough imagining the Cowboys taking down a Vanderbilt squad that didn't lose until January, posted some of the best offensive numbers in the country, and beat the defending champions, No. 1 Florida, in the SEC Tournament. The Commodores have proven that they're not a team that will lose to inferior competition this spring.

That leaves High Point (+370) and Akron (+260) as the two best shots at a 12 seed beating a 5 seed this year. If you want the safer 12-seed pick, it's Akron. With JT Toppin out for Texas Tech, the Zips have a shot — they're underdogs by 7.5 points, but if 3-pointers aren't falling for the Red Raiders, they won't have Toppin's elite talent to uplift them. Texas Tech lost three-straight games heading into the tournament. If Tavari Johnson gets hot, keep an eye out for Akron.

Wisconsin was a bit of a tough draw for No. 12 High Point, but at least in comparison to McNeese or Northern Iowa, the 30-win Panthers have some potential. This season, Wisconsin hasn't particularly been adept to turnovers, which High Point thrives on — but if the Panthers can defend the 3-point line and poke a few balls free, they have some upset potential.

SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

Best bets to make the Sweet 16

• Wisconsin (+120)
• BYU (+425)
• Miami FL (+400)

Among the teams not favored to reach the Sweet 16, the longest shot worth considering is Miami (FL) at +400. The Hurricanes went 13-5 in the ACC and 25-8 overall this season, but they've also been at their best in the second half — Miami's path to the Sweet 16 would be beating No. 10 Missouri, then likely No. 2 Purdue.

The Boilermakers matchup for Miami would be an intriguing one. It would likely be a physical game, with both teams among the best rebounding units in the country, but the Hurricanes have the size to take down the Big Ten champions. With a steady offense and defense, plus consistency on the glass, Jai Lucas' squad has some potential to win two games in the tournament.

Two more Sweet 16 picks to consider are BYU (+425) and Wisconsin (+120). The NCAA Tournament is where elite talent shines. The best-of-the-best lift their teams up when it matters most, and if you believe A.J. Dybantsa is going to be that kind of talent in the NBA — the way he's being hyped to be by scouts and evaluators — then this year's March Madness run will be his only shot to impress the country in the NCAA Tournament.

Plain and simple, BYU has the best scorer in the country with Dybansta. A strong two-game stretch from the star could be enough to reach the Sweet 16, facing either NC State or Texas in the first round, then likely Gonzaga in the second. Even with Richie Saunders' absence, if the Cougars can get crash the glass, shoot strong from deep and let Dybantsa do his thing, there's Sweet 16 potential.

Finally, Wisconsin is a team that, as previously mentioned, doesn't turn the ball over, has two strong scorers in the backcourt in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, and went 8-8 against Quad 1 teams this season, a respectable .500 mark that speaks to a solid all-around group. The Badgers didn't get a terrible draw in No. 12 High Point, and from there, it would take a likely win over Arkansas to reach the Sweet 16.

MORE: Teams with the best odds to pull off an upset in Rounds 1 and 2

Best bets to make the Final Four:

• Houston (+250)
• UConn (+600)
• Purdue (+360)

Houston could have easily been a No. 1 seed over Florida in the NCAA Tournament. Had the Cougars taken down Arizona in the Big 12 championship, which was instead a five-point loss, they could be in a much different conversation right now. 

That is to say: Houston (+250) which has some extra motivation after losing last year's championship to the Gators, has what it takes to make another deep run. With arguably the deepest guard room in the country, led by an elite talent in Kingston Flemings, the Cougars have plenty of potential to reach the Final Four — and they could do it in a championship rematch vs. Florida, should it be No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the South Region.

In general, the South Region isn't especially intimidating this year, something Houston can take advantage of. Even at +250, there's plenty of value in taking the Cougars to topple Florida or another team in the Elite Eight.

If there's a region for potential chaos, it's in the East. Duke is the favorite, of course, but with elite coaches galore, there's also a chance the Blue Devils run into trouble earlier than anticipated. That would leave the door open for No. 2 UConn (+600) — and it's difficult to pick against a Dan Hurley team, with the Huskies owning elite depth once again in 2025-26. If things get hectic in the East Region, with UConn being on the opposite side of the bracket as Duke, St. John's and Kansas, the Huskies could be the team to reach the Final Four.

Finally, there's Purdue (+360). While we've previously mentioned a tough matchup should the Boilermakers take on Miami (FL) in the second round, this is also a team led by a well-experienced floor general in Braden Smith. Purdue, which just proved it can beat elite teams by taking down Michigan in the Big Ten Championship, also got a relatively light bracket draw — its top other competitors are Gonzaga without Braden Huff, BYU without Saunders and No. 1 Arizona, which had an elite season, but also has yet to prove it can make it past the Sweet 16 under Tommy Lloyd.

With plenty experience to lean on, Purdue has the potential to come out of the West Region, especially if Arizona disappoints again.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

NCAA Tournament winners best bets: Sleepers

• Houston (+1300)
• Purdue (+2800)
• UConn (+3000)

For context, there has been just two teams to win the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed or lower since 2000: No. 7 UConn in 2014, and No. 4 UConn in 2023. So, it's unlikely you'll find any reach championship "sleepers" below a No. 3 seed, if not a second seed.

Disregarding the No. 1 seed for "sleeper" purposes here, among the No. 2 seeds, Houston (+1300) and Purdue (+2800) are the best picks. Both are coming out of a region that has potential to be "weaker" than the other two, and both have the talent and experience to compete with elite teams when it matters most. 

Finally, UConn (+3000) has proven before that it can make a deep run even when it's not quite expected to. The depth of the East Region will be a significant challenge, but Dan Hurley is one of the best coaches in the nation and has already won two titles. Perhaps if the bracket breaks the Huskies' way, their depth and defensive talent shines en route to another championship.

MORE UPSET PICKS: 10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds