March Madness odds, lines, predictions: Expert picks for 2026 Sweet 16 games (March 26-27)

The Big Ten leads all conferences with six teams in the Sweet 16. 

At least one will be in the Elite Eight in the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament after the third round on Thursday and Friday. The conference looking to break a national championship drought that extends back to 2000 has a good chance to send multiple teams to the Elite Eight. We have four winning their Sweet 16 matchup. 

The West Region and South Region play Thursday. No. 2 Purdue takes on No. 11 Texas, and No. 1 Arizona meets No. 4 Arkansas in the West Region in San Jose, Calif. No. 9 Iowa takes on No. 4 Nebraska, and No. 2 Houston meets No. 3 Illinois in the South Region in Houston. 

The East Region and Midwest Region play on Friday. In the East Region, No. 1 Duke faces No. 5 St. John's, and No. 2 UConn meets No. 3 Michigan State in Washington, D.C. In the Midwest Region, No. 1 Michigan meets No. 4 Alabama, and No. 2 Iowa State faces No. 6 Tennessee in Indianapolis. 

We finished 36-12 S/U and 23-25 ATS in the first two rounds. Here are our predictions.

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Odds courtesy of Caesars: 

March Madness picks, predictions for Sweet 16

Thursday, March 26

• No. 2 Purdue (-7) vs. No. 11 Texas  (West), 7:10 p.m., CBS 

Texas is the new-aged version of Cinderella, and Sean Miller has the Longhorns hot at the right time. The Longhorns averaged 8.3 turnovers in three tournament victories last weekend, and the key will be getting stops against Purdue's methodical style around Purdue point guard Braden Smith, who had 16 assists and 10 turnovers in the Boilermakers' first two tournament games. Purdue is shooting 57.9% from 3-point range in two tournament games. 

Pick: Purdue 84, Texas 74 

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• No. 4 Nebraska (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Iowa (South), 7:30 p.m., TBS/TruTV

Big Ten rivals meet after splitting their regular season matchups. The Huskers limited Bennett Stirtz to 11 points in the last meeting – a 84-75 victory on March 8. Stirtz had 25 points when the Hawkeyes beat the Huskers 57-52 on Feb. 17. Nebraska star Pryce Sandfort averaged 14 points in the two meetings. It's a question of controlling the tempo in a near-mirror image matchup. Iowa is 1-5 S/U as an underdog of five points or less, but we think they break the trend. 

Pick: Iowa 72, Nebraska 70

• No. 1 Arizona (-8) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (West), 9:45 p.m., CBS 

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• No. 2 Houston (-3.5) vs. No. 3 Illinois (South), 1:05 p.m., TBS 

Contrast in styles. Houston's tough defense has limited its first two tournament opponents to 52 points per game. Illinois averaged 90.5 points per game in the first two rounds. The Illini have a dynamic tandem with Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic, but all five starters can score. Houston has the hometown advantage in the South Region, and they made No. 10 Texas A&M's high-scoring offense look miserable. Illinois is better than that, but they have to get to 75 points. Houston is 2-3 S/U when they allow that many points.

Pick: Illinois 75, Houston 70

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Friday, March 27 

• No. 1 Duke (-6.5) vs. No. 5 St. John's (East), 7:10 p.m., CBS

It doesn't get much better than Rick Pitino vs. Duke in the second weekend. The Blue Devils have weathered injuries, and SN Player of the Year Cameron Boozer averages 20.5 points and 12 rebounds through tournament games. St. John's forward Zuby Ejifor averages 16 points and 10 rebounds. Duke is shooting 25.5% from 3-point range in the tournament, while the Red Storm is at 32.8%. Expect another thriller, but Boozer will be up to the challenge, and center Patrick Nogongba should get more minutes here. 

Pick: Duke 73, St. John's 72 

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• No. 1 Michigan (-10) vs. No. 4 Alabama (Midwest), 7:35 p.m., TBS/TruTV

Michigan has won eight of its last nine tournament games against SEC schools, with the only loss coming in last year's 78-65 loss to Auburn in the Sweet 16. Labaron Philon averaged 19.5 points and 9.5 assists in the first two rounds for the Crimson Tide. Michigan point guard Elliot Cadeau averaged 8.5 points, eight assists with just three turnovers in the first weekend. Both teams are elite defensive rebounding teams – but the Wolverines have only allowed 90 points one time this season. Will Alabama have an answer for 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara – who has been one of the best players in the tournament so far? First one to hit that 90-point mark wins. 

Pick: Michigan 90, Alabama 85

• No. 2 UConn (-2) vs. No. 3 Michigan State (East), 9:45 p.m., CBS

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• No. 2 Iowa State (-4.5) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest), 10:10 p.m., TBS

Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season. The Vols have hit 17 of 39 (43.5%) from 3-point range. The Vols also defend the 3-point line well, which will be key against Milan Momcilovic, who is 7 of 16 (43.8%) for the tournament and 49.3% for the season. Tennessee is 3-1 S/U as an underdog of more than four points this year, and the Cyclones are trying to get back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2000. 

Pick: Iowa State 74, Tennessee 67