March Madness odds, lines, predictions: Expert picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament games on Day 2 (March 20)

Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament features two SEC teams on the spot in the Midwest Region. 

No. 4 Alabama meets No. 13 Hofstra. No. 7 Kentucky takes on No. 10 Santa Clara. The Crimson Tide and Wildcats are boom-or-bust bracket teams with the potential to make deep runs – but they are facing a few bracket busters who have emerged as hot picks this week. Both lines have dropped since Selection Sunday – and the Pride and Broncos are popular Cinderellas. 

No. 5 St. John's also opens tournament play against No. 12 Northern Iowa in the South Region. That is an interesting test for the Red Storm, which swept the Big East regular season and tournament championships.

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We picked a double-digit sleeper for Friday's action, but it's not Hofstra, Santa Clara or Northern Iowa. No. 1 Arizona and No. 1 Florida also are in action Friday, and Braden Smith should set the all-time assists record early for No. 2 Purdue against No.15 Queens. The Wildcats, Gators and Boilermakers are among the heavy favorites Friday. 

Sporting News will pick every first-round game over the next two days. Here are our picks for Day 1.

Odds courtesy of Caesars:

March Madness picks, predictions for Round 1

• No. 7 Kentucky (-3) vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (Midwest), 12:15 p.m., CBS

This could be the best game of the day. The Broncos are a hot Sweet 16 sleeper under coach Herb Sendek. Santa Clara ranks sixth in the nation with 64.9 field goal attempts per game. The Wildcats have been up-and-down all season under second-year coach Mark Pope, but Otega Oweh (18.2 ppg.) will be a force in this game. Kentucky is 3-0 ATS when favored by three points or less, including pick ‘ems.  

Pick: Kentucky 79, Santa Clara 74

• No. 5 Texas Tech (-8) vs. No. 12 Akron (Midwest), 12:40 p.m., truTV

We hinted at this upset early in the week. The Zips are 0-7 in the tournament all time, but can they take advantage of the Red Raiders without JT Toppin? Texas Tech ranks fifth in the nation with a 39.3% three-point percentage. The Red Raiders shot 37.5% from that range in their last three losses. Akron can win this game outright. 

Pick: Akron 83, Texas Tech 81

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• No. 1 Arizona (-30.5) vs. No. 16 LIU (West), 1:35 p.m., TNT 

Arizona has won their last two first-round NCAA tournament games by an average of 24 points per game. It's a huge line against the Sharks, who made the Big Dance under coach Rod Strickland. Long Island lost to Illinois 98-58 on Nov. 22.

Pick: Arizona 90, Long Island 62

• No. 3 Virginia (-18.5) vs. No. 14 Wright State (Midwest), 1:50 p.m., TBS 

Wright State is 0-4 all time in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and it will be tough to score against a Virginia defense that allows just 68.4 points per game. The Cavaliers front line – led by Thjis De Ridder (15.5 ppg., 6.2 rpg.) – will be a problem. The Raiders are 2-6 S/U and 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. 

Pick: Virginia 78, Wright State 66

• No. 2 Iowa State (-24.5) vs. No. 15 Tennessee State (Midwest), 2:50 p.m., CBS 

Iowa State features Milan Momcilovic (17.1 ppg.), who leads the nation with a 49.6% three-point percentage. It's still a hefty spread against Tennessee State, a team that averages 80.5 points under coach Nolan Smith. The Tigers will need to be above their average of six 3-pointers per game to keep up. The Cyclones scored 90 or more points nine times this year. 

Pick: Iowa State 90, Tennessee State 62

• No. 4 Alabama (-11.5) vs. No. 13 Hofstra (Midwest), 3:15 p.m., truTV

Hofstra is a trendy upset pick under coach Speedy Claxton. Cruz Davis averages 20.2 points per game, and the Pride have a top-20 scoring defense (66.1 ppg.). Alabama could be without guard Aden Holloway (16.8 ppg.) – who was arrested and charged with first-degree possession of marijuana on Monday. The Crimson Tide lead the nation with 91.7 points per game. Alabama is 5-3 ATS when favored between 10-15 points. 

Pick: Alabama 83, Hofstra 70 

• No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State (-1.5)  (West), 4:10 p.m., TNT

Villanova is back in the NCAA Tournament under first-year coach Kevin Willard – and their only losses since Jan. 17 are to St. John's and UConn. The Aggies are 1-4 S/U in their last five first-round NCAA tournament games. Utah State is a popular pick here, but there is value in Villanova here. 

Pick: Villanova 82, Utah State 81 

• No. 6 Tennessee (-11.5) vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) (Midwest), 4:25 p.m., TBS 

Tennessee has made the Elite Eight each of the last two seasons under coach Rick Barnes, and forward Nate Ament (17.5 ppg.) returned from an ankle injury in the SEC tournament. Can Miami keep this run going after an impressive victory in the First Four against SMU? Is this the upset special? 

Pick: Tennessee 86, Miami 80

IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South

• No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa (-2)  (South), 6:50 p.m., TNT 

Iowa is a slim favorite – perhaps because of the scoring capability of Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 20 points per game this season. Stirtz averaged 21 points in two tournament games for Drake last season. The Tigers are 1-2 S/U as an underdog of five points or less this season. 

Pick: Iowa 77, Clemson 71 

• No. 5 St. John's (-10.5) vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa (East), 7:10 p.m., CBS 

The Panthers will try to slow down the Red Storm. Northern Iowa leads the nation in scoring defense (61.3 ppg.). The Panthers only lost two games by double digits this season. How will they match up against Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 ppg.) and Bryce Hopkins (13.5 ppg.)? We think St. John's avoids a Big East tournament hangover and takes over in the second half. 

Pick: St. John's 73, Northern Iowa 61 

• No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) vs. No. 10 UCF (East), 7:25 p.m., TBS

This line has dropped a half-point, which is a slight lean toward the Knights. Riley Kugel (14.4 ppg.) and Themus Fulks (14.1 ppg.) can score, and 7-foot-2 center John Bol can alter shots. How will Mick Cronin use guard Donovan Dent, who suffered a calf strain in the Big Ten tournament semifinals against Purdue? 

Pick: UCLA 81, UCF 72 

• No. 2 Purdue (-25.5) vs. No. 15 Queens (West), 7:35 p.m., truTV 

Purdue guard Braden Smith should break the career assists record held by Bobby Hurley in the first half – and that will be a topper for the Boilermakers coming off a Big Ten tournament championship. The Royals are making their first tournament appearance. Queens played Villanova, Virginia, Arkansas and Auburn in non-conference play and lost those games by an average of 28 points per game. 

Pick: Purdue 80, Queens 59 

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• No. 1 Florida (-35.5) vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M (South), 9:25 p.m., TNT 

The Gators faces the Panthers, which beat Lehigh 67-55 in their First Four matchup. Florida averaged 98.5 points per game in their tournament opener each of the last two seasons. The Gators are 0-3 ATS when favored by more than 30 points this season. 

Pick: Florida 100, Prairie View A&M 68

• No. 4 Kansas (-14.5) vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist (East), 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

Dominique Daniels averages 23.2 points per game for the Lancers, and Cal Baptist has become a trendy pick here because of Kansas' up-and-down season that included three losses in their last five games. Darryn Peterson – who averaged 20.8 points per game in that stretch – comes into focus. The Jayhawks are 3-1 ATS when favored between 10 to 20 points.  

Pick: Kansas 82, Cal Baptist 64

• No. 2 UConn (-20.5) vs. No. 15 Furman (East), 10 p.m., TBS 

Furman pulled a first-round stunner against No. 4 Virginia as a No. 13 seed in 2023, but the Huskies are a different breed. The Huskies have won their last three first-round tournament games by an average of 23.3 points per game. Furman freshman Alex Wilkins (17.7 ppg.) could make it interesting early. 

Pick: UConn 81, Furman 63 

• No. 7 Miami, Fla. (-2) vs. No. 10 Missouri (West), 10:10 p.m., truTV 

This should be a nail-biter to close the first round. Miami has a dynamic inside-outside combination with Malik Reneau (18.8 ppg.) and guard Tre Donaldson (16.5 ppg.). Missouri features high-scoring guard Mark Mitchell (18.3 ppg.) who is coming off back-to-back 32-point games. The Tigers are 1-3 S/U as an underdog of three points or less. The Hurricanes only have two losses when they hit 70 points. 

Pick: Miami 78, Missouri 74