March Madness odds, lines, point spreads: The best bets and parlays for picking First Four, Round 1 games

The madness of March is upon us, and the road to Indianapolis is about to get underway for every national championship contender.

As college basketball changes, so do the odds. For the first time under the current format, all 1-4 seeds are double-digit favorites in the first round. Not only that, but all are favored by at least 12 points.

Is that an opportunity to take advantage of underdogs, or is the betting market still behind on the significance of the gap between the country's biggest programs and the mid-majors?

Here are the best bets, predictions and more for the First Four and first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

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March Madness odds for First Four, Round 1

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

* - First Four game.

March Madness best bets for First Four, Round 1

No. 9 Utah State (-2.5) vs. No. 8 Villanova

Few trust the Mountain West in March, but that might not be totally fair. San Diego State reached the national championship game in 2023 followed by the Sweet 16, while both Utah State and New Mexico won an opening round game in the last two years. This is an ideal spot to pick in favor of the Mountain West.

Utah State really impressed in non-conference play, winning by wide margins, and the Aggies have a blend of continuity and shooting that typically wins in March. The motivating factor here is Villanova, though. Credit goes to Kevin Willard for being ahead of schedule in year one, but the Wildcats struggled against high-level competition and didn't beat a single KenPom top-50 team in regulation this season. Villanova also recently lost Matthew Hodge to injury and stumbled against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament.

Utah State might have been vulnerable against a team with size, but the Wildcats lack size outside of Duke Brennan. This is a game the Aggies can win fairly comfortably. 

No. 5 Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. No. 12 High Point 

High Point's 30-4 record is shiny, but the Panthers' metrics aren't as strong as they were last season, and they went 0-2 in their only Quad 1-2 games (both Quad 2) with a margin of defeat of 17 points in each. High Point has proven it can dominate the Big South, but a better version of this team fell by 12 to Purdue on this stage last year.

The spread may be within single digits, narrowly, in part because Wisconsin isn't a team that has proven it can be trusted in March. The past doesn't matter here -- at least not yet. The Badgers have won two many games against high-level opponents for their season to be a fluke, and the duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd should have no problem dicing up KenPom's 161th-ranked defense. 

SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

All 5-seeds win parlay (+114)

The 12-over-5 upset is a staple of March Madness. There has been at least one in five of the last six NCAA Tournaments, including two last year with McNeese taking down Clemson and Colorado State defeating Memphis as a betting favorite. 

The odds have shifted this year. Every 5-seed is favored by at least seven points, partly the product of changes in college basketball but also partly the product of where teams fell. Vanderbilt and St. John's are generally considered strong 5-seeds, while 4-seed Nebraska might have been viewed as less of a favorite against McNeese or Northern Iowa, for example.

Still, there is value on picking a clean sweep of 5s over 12s, which happened only three years ago. There doesn't seem to be a truly vulnerable team on the 5-line. Texas Tech is playing without JT Toppin but hasn't looked lost without him, while St. John's and Vanderbilt dismantled UConn and Florida, respectively, in their conference tournament runs. Wisconsin has been prone to upsets in the past, but it's hard to believe a team that beat Michigan once and nearly did it again is going to lose to a High Point squad that isn't as good as last year's and hasn't played high-level competition.

Losses by Belmont and Yale in their conference tournaments also thinned the crop of 12-seeds. At +114, there is still real value in simply taking all of the 5-seeds to win.

First Four best bet: No. 11 Miami (Ohio) +6.5 vs. No. 11 SMU

The metrics won't say Miami (Ohio) is anywhere as good as SMU, but there are a few reasons to bank on this game at least being close in the First Four. The RedHawks have played numerous close games this season and know how to perform down the stretch regardless of the magnitude of the moment or the deficit. They also should have a bit of weight off their shoulders with their undefeated record gone. 

More importantly, Miami will have the Dayton crowd behind it thanks to the game being in its own state, and the status of SMU's B.J. Edwards is up in the air. The Mustangs originally said Edwards would be available for the NCAA Tournament after missing the final six games of the season, but once they found out they were in the field, coach Andy Enfield said Edwards won't be 100 percent. "We expect him to help us," Enfield said. You can take that for what it's worth, but SMU went 1-5 without him. 

On Miami's side, there is no doubt about the RedHawks' ability to score points. Yes, the schedule is one part of the equation, but 90 points per game doesn't happen by accident, and the support of the crowd against an SMU team with no momentum whatsoever can keep this game within reach.

There might be more comfort in picking Miami to cover if the line shifts back to 7.5 or 8.5, where it was for much of Sunday night, but the RedHawks are intriguing here even beyond their story.

MORE: 6 potential Cinderella stars who could bust your bracket

No. 11 South Florida  (+185) vs. No. 6 Louisville

South Florida is a team no one should want to face right now, and it will be Louisville that draws this tough assignment on Thursday. The Bulls have won 17 of their last 19 games and haven't lost by more than a possession since mid-December. Coach Bryan Hodgson brought over much of his core from a good Arkansas State team and also added D-2 transfer Wes Enis, who has the kind of 3-point shot that could give Louisville trouble all day.

The Cardinals are just 1-8 in Quad 1-A games and haven't been able to rely on the health of star freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who missed the ACC Tournament. They also looked unprepared for this stage against underdog Creighton a year ago.

Louisville took care of business against inferior competition and nothing more in the regular season. After such a strong finish, it's possible USF isn't inferior competition at all.

No. 13 Troy (+13.5) vs. No. 4 Nebraska

Troy stumbled a few times in Sun Belt play and saw its metrics take a tumble as a result, but what the Trojans did in non-conference play should speak itself. Troy picked up wins over San Diego State, Akron and UAB, and USC needed a literal miracle to beat this team in three overtimes in Southern California.

That doesn't mean Troy is going to pull off an upset against Nebraska, but the Trojans have already proven they have what it takes to hang around against higher-level teams.

Nebraska's perimeter defense is excellent, which doesn't bode well for a Troy offense that doesn't excel from deep, but the Trojans has a solid perimeter defense of its own, and the Cornhuskers haven't looked the same in the second half of the season with Rienk Mast struggling to get going on the offensive end. It's realistic to expect Troy to keep this game within 8-12 points.

MORE: Teams with the best chances to pull off upsets in Rounds 1-2

No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF: Under 152.5 points

UCLA is a pretty decisive favorite for a No. 7 seed against UCF, but the best bet on the board here is under 152.5 points. The Bruins have looked hot of late, but they are dealing with the reality that both Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent might be playing at less than 100 percent. At the very least, it could take the two some time to settle back in, and offense will be harder to find outside of that duo.

UCF is one of the country's most volatile teams because of how important the 3-pointer is to its success. The Knights have shooters, but they are coming off back-to-back ugly offensive showings and just don't have many ways to score when the 3s aren't falling.

Facing a UCLA team with a solid perimeter defense and playing under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament, where even teams that shoot the lights out often struggle to adjust, betting against UCF putting a barrage of 3s on the board is worthwhile. If UCLA can keep UCF to about 65 points, the under will have no trouble hitting even in the event of a comfortable Bruins win.

MORE: Which 10-seed is most likely to win in the first round?

No. 9 Saint Louis (+136) vs. No. 8 Georgia

The selection committee gave Saint Louis some respect by keeping the Billikens as a single-digit seed, but Josh Schertz's team is a slight underdog against No. 8 Georgia. This line probably should be closer to even at the very least. 

Slow starts have really hurt Saint Louis of late, but the Billikens are one of the most dangerous teams in the country when they get hot. A bit of a miracle from Dayton is all that kept Saint Louis out of the Atlantic 10 title game, and Schertz has a unique combination of depth, 3-point shooting and experience at his disposal, led by Robbie Avila. 

After showing up unprepared against Gonzaga on this stage last year, a quality Georgia team that clearly wasn't among the SEC's upper tier shouldn't be expected to win comfortably against a Saint Louis squad that is built well for March despite some recent bumps in the road.

No. 2 UConn (-20.5) vs. No. 15 Furman 

UConn looks vulnerable right now, but the Huskies will not have any problem beating Furman and doing it with relative ease. UConn beat each of its non-power conference opponents in the non-conference slate by at least 23 points, while Furman is 0-3 in Quad 1-2 games with losses by 16 against Northern Iowa and 27 against High Point.

The Paladins are barely a top-200 KenPom team and, for all of their success in the conference tournament, finished sixth in the SoCon. UConn should be able to hit a margin of about 25 points, particularly as Dan Hurley looks to build momentum after an ugly loss in the Big East title game.

No. 7 Miami (-130) vs. No. 10 Missouri

Miami is favored against Missouri, but there is some extra value available because the Tigers are playing close to home in St. Louis. There might be a bit of an advantage there, but the reality is the Hurricanes are the better team by a solid margin. Missouri is the third lowest-ranked at-large team in KenPom ratings and didn't look too comfortable down the stretch, losing five of its last eight. The Tigers' perimeter defense has been a problem all season long, and Dennis Gates doesn't have a strong history in this tournament with upset losses to Princeton and Drake.

Miami is the opposite of a volatile team, not relying too heavily on 3-pointers and largely handling business against non-elite teams in the regular season. Somewhat of a home-crowd advantage shouldn't matter as much in this game as some seem to believe.