Maple Leafs draft pick tracker: Live updates on odds of Toronto keeping 1st-rounder from Boston Bruins

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have run out of things to play for in a positive sense in the 2025-26 NHL season.

But as far as the 2026 NHL Draft is concerned, the Maple Leafs still have a first-round pick on the line, and the Boston Bruins are very interested.

It's the pick that moved in the Brandon Carlo trade during the 2024-25 season. The Leafs sent a first-rounder and Fraser Minten to Boston in exchange for the defenseman Carlo.

That first-round pick for 2026 had a protection on it: If it ends up being a top-five selection, the Maple Leafs keep the pick.

If if ends up anywhere from No. 6 and beyond, the Bruins get to make the pick.

Given the rough season in Toronto, losing a first-round pick in a quality draft class would add insult to injury.

Below, we'll keep track of relevant happenings as the Maple Leafs try to finish in the bottom-five to give themselves the best draft lottery odds of keeping their own pick.

MORE: Is a Connor McDavid-Auston Matthews trade feasible?

Maple Leafs draft pick live odds

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March 26: Before action on March 26, the Maple Leafs rank eighth in the lottery odds. They have a 6.0% chance of getting the first pick, a 6.2% chance of the second pick, a 0.2% chance of the third pick -- and an 87.6% chance of conveying the pick to Boston.

Maple Leafs draft pick live updates

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March 24: The Maple Leafs hurt their cause directly on Tuesday, helping Boston's cause in the process. They played the Bruins and won, 4-2. That made it tougher for the Leafs to end up in the top-five, and easier for Boston to get the pick.

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