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Republicans are making a serious play for the New Jersey statehouse this year — with a possibility for the MAGA wing of the party to make inroads in a state that has usually favored more moderate GOPers.
A total of 11 Democratic and Republican candidates are set to face off in their parties’ primary elections Tuesday to succeed term-limited New Jersey Dem. Gov. Phil Murphy, who was first elected in 2017.
The primaries come as New Jersey voters appear to have grown weary after eight years of Democratic control, and kitchen-table issues such as crime, the cost of living and property taxes have risen to the fore — factors that could give the GOP an edge in the blue-leaning state.
Among the wide-open field of six Democrats and five Republicans, observers will be closely watching Trump-backed candidate Jack Ciattarelli to see if the president’s on-again, off-again Midas touch will help propel a MAGA Republican to be the next chief executive of the Garden State.
Ciattarelli, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2017 and narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021, has openly embraced Trump’s endorsement, as well as the president’s anointing of the former state rep as “100% MAGA.” The hopeful is sitting at a sturdy 44% among GOP voters in recent polling from Emerson College and The Hill.
Rounding out the frontrunners among Republicans is former conservative talk radio host Bill Spadea, who aggressively vied for Trump’s backing with Ciattarelli, and moderate state Sen. Jon Bramnick, whose district includes tony towns such as Bernardsville and Chatham.
Spadea is polling around 18% among prospective voters, while Bramnick is at a meager 8%, leaving a strong opening for Ciatterelli to easily claim the GOP nod.
“There is every chance that the Republican can win this year because there’s a sense of disgust,” longtime New Jersey political operative Hank Sheinkopf told The Post.
“Jersey Dems are over the Murphy era — if they weren’t, his wife would be a senator,” Sheinkopf said, referring to the badly botched senatorial bid by New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy last year.
“The GOP needs to be organized,” the expert said.
Leading the pack among Democrats is Mikie Sherrill, a US representative in Monmouth County, former prosecutor and former Navy helicopter pilot.
Other GOP contenders such as Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and US Rep. Josh Gottheimer of North Jersey were all polling neck-and-neck around between 9%-11% but far behind Sherrill, who held a comfortable lead at 28% in the same polls.
Sherrill is widely seen as this year’s establishment candidate and has enjoyed the support of much of the state’s Democratic Party luminaries.
“The only one who can beat Ciattarelli is Mikie Sherrill. Her campaign is better, and she’s seen as a warrior,” Sheinkopf said.
“Her profile is much more of what the state is looking for: someone with big balls, someone who stop the corruption, which has always been an issue, specifically with the pension system,” he said.
The New Jersey governor’s race — one of just two gubernatorial contests this year, with the other in Virginia — is being eyed as a referendum on Trump as well as Murphy, who has overseen a spike in energy costs and clumsily waded into the immigration debate in February when he claimed to be housing an illegal immigrant at his home.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump and Vice President JD Vance lost in New Jersey to Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz by just 6% — the best performance by a GOP ticket in the state since the early 1990s. Trump lost the Garden State in 2016, 2020 and 2024 but improved his performance with each contest.
In New Jersey, a traditionally a blue-leaning state which typically favors centrist Republican governors, voter registration is lopsided in favor of Democrats.
As of March, there were more than 2.4 million registered Democrats in the state, compared to just 1.6 million Republicans, although GOP registrations have inched up slightly in the past year.
Still, despite its blue leanings, Republicans have won six of the past 11 governor’s races.
Jersey politics has particular rhythm, and Sherrill [and] Ciattarelli fit the picture’’ of a likely November matchup, Sheinkopf said.
“Ciattarelli is organized like [GOP former Gov. Chris] Christie, he represents anger in voters. If he wins, it will be because he represents the moment,” he said.
As for the remaining Dems, “Fulop, forget it, Gottheimer has faded,” Sheinkopf said.
But “the one who could get in front of it is Ras Baraka. He’s from Newark and has a built-in voter base.”
Pollster John McLaughlin, CEO and Partner of McLaughlin & Associates, said he also likes Ciattarelli’s chances for governor, particularly given his strong support among Hispanics.
“We did a poll for Univision among likely Hispanic voters, Ciattarelli was within single digits of the leading Democratic candidates,” McLaughlin told The Post. “Typically, Democrats win Hispanic voters two-to-one in New Jersey.”
Also boding well for the GOP in Jersey this year is the fact that Trump shockingly flipped diverse Passaic County in last year’s election, observers said. The county has a nearly 45% Hispanic population and went 74% for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“Trump’s backing will help Ciattarelli, he will certainly win the Republican nomination,” McLaughlin said. “Trump wants to cut taxes, which is the leading issue in New Jersey.”
Trump has heaped praise on Ciattarelli since endorsing him last month, calling him “a true champion for the people of your state” at a tele-rally ahead of early voting kicking off in New Jersey.
“He’s been a friend of mine, and he’s been a real success story,” Trump said of the candidate’s successful medical publishing company.
Democratic hopefuls have sought to cast this year’s Trump-tinged governor’s race as a “MAGA battle,” claiming there’s “extremism in the GOP primary.”
The general election will be held Tuesday, Nov. 4.
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