Knicks vs. Pacers Odds, Picks and Best Bets for Game 2

Game 1 of the Pacers-Knicks series was so wild, so historic, it needs its own name so fans can refer to it. What can we come up with: the Haliburton Hanger? The 970? Nesmith’s Revenge?

New York lost (or blew, depending on your perspective) a 14-point lead in the final three minutes and lost to the Pacers in overtime. In the last 27 playoffs, no team in that situation had ever done that, all 970 of them. Now, teams with 14-point leads in the final three minutes are 1-970.

Let’s look at the numbers heading into Game 2 and the emotional state of each team.

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Pacers at Knicks Game 2 Odds

Vegas was watching Wednesday night and has made the Knicks bigger favorites than they were for game 1. The Pacers are getting six or 6.5-points tonight with the total at 226.

Indiana is 8-3 against the spread in the playoffs, 7-4 over/under. Six of its last eight games have gone over. New York is 8-5 against the spread in the postseason, 6-6-1 over/under, with three of its last four games going over.

New York has won each of its last eight home games after a home loss. The Pacers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games. Indiana is also 21-17 as underdogs this season.

Each of the Pacers last six ECF finals road games has gone over.

Pacers at Knicks Game 2 Preview

In the NBA playoffs, teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series win the series 92.7 percent of the time. That’s what’s at stake here tonight for the Knicks.

Game 1 played out like we thought, at least early. The Pacers aren’t going to tilt their defense toward Jalen Brunson of the Knicks, and he got to the hoop with ease, finishing with 43 points. Karl-Anthony Towns had 35 for New York.

Indiana started the game making its first eight shots, but the game was still close (defense, schme-fense). Then Indiana just went bananas in the fourth. I know everyone wants to talk about Haliburton and what he did at the end of regulation (really, what was he doing driving away from the basket?), but Nesmith was the real hero. He made four threes in the rally and was a career best 8-9 from three-point range. 8-9!

The Pacers made 15 threes compared to the Knicks 11. New York turned the ball over 15 times compared to the Pacers seven.

Looking at it objectively, New York played better than Indiana for 45 minutes, but lost.

Pacers at Knicks Game 2 Prediction

Now we get the data vs. emotion battle. This is one of my favorite things about making picks. Data matters. A lot. Emotions matter. A lot. The data - and the books - believe in the Knicks. I’m usually more in tune with the emotions. Right now, the feeling around the Pacers has to be that they can’t lose.

Even if they get down 10 in the fourth quarter, they can look back and say, ‘we got this.’ Haliburton just seems to rise to the moment. I don’t know why he doesn’t get more respect around the league. It’s probably some of the antics that turn people off.

It’s asking a lot for the Knicks to come back tonight and win, and even if they do, I think it’s close. I’m super comfortable with the Pacers and the points.

The pick: Pacers +6.5 (-118 at BetMGM)