Keaton Wagler NCAA tournament stats: Underrecruited freshman leads Illinois to first Final Four since 2005

Thanks to one of the quickest-rising freshmen in the country, the Illinois Fighting Illini have a date in Indianapolis.

First-year guard Keaton Wagler continued his huge 2025-26 season on Saturday in Illinois' biggest game of the year, putting up 25 points against Iowa to lead his squad to the Final Four for the first time since 2005.

Wagler has skyrocketed from being a consensus three-star recruit coming out of high school last year, to the freshman star of a Final Four squad. By dicing up the Hawkeyes all night on Saturday, besting another talented guard in Bennett Stirtz, Wagler has the Illini eyeing a title with just two more wins.

Here's a look at Wagler's performance in the NCAA Tournament so far, how he guided Illinois to an Elite Eight win and a breakdown of his path from under-recruited guard to likely NBA lottery pick.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Latest news and more

Keaton Wagler NCAA tournament stats

• Games: 4
• PPG: 17.5
• RPG: 6.5
• APG: 3.8
• SPG: 1.0
• BPG: 1.0
• FG%: 43.6%
• 3PT%: 44.0%
• FT%: 68.8%

Wagler saved his best game for the biggest stage, dropping 25 points against Iowa in the Elite Eight, but he's remained effective throughout the NCAA Tournament.

In the first round, he dropped a near-triple-double vs. Penn: 18 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a blowout win.

When Illinois took down VCU with ease in the second round, Wagler had 14 points and five rebounds. And finally, in the Sweet 16 against the second-seeded Houston Cougars, Wagler found ways to overcome an inefficient scoring night with 13 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and two blocks in a win. 

Keaton Wagler stats vs. Iowa

• Points: 25
• Rebounds: 2
• Assists: 3
• Steals: 1
• Blocks: 0
• FG: 8-17
• 3PT: 2-7
• FT: 7-7

Wagler played 38 minutes against Iowa — he was excellent for nearly the entire game. 

He had 25 of Illinois' 71 points, including a pair of 3-pointers, one of which provided one of the cleanest ankle-breakers of the 2025-26 college basketball season.

brb gonna watch this Keaton Wagler stepback for a while pic.twitter.com/vptIQOJ1kj

Keaton Wagler recruitment 

Wagler did not join Illinois this season as a highly-prized national recruit. He was certainly well-regarded to land at a top Big Ten squad, but he also did not scream "future NBA lottery pick" the way he does now. 

Per the 247Sports Composite, which uses consensus rankings, Wagler was a three-star recruit ranked as the 261st-best player in the country, the No. 47 shooting guard and the No. 4 player from Kansas. 

Coming out of Shawnee Mission Northwest High School in Kansas, per 247Sports, Wagler's top offers included Illinois, Murray State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State and Minnesota.

Even as one of the best players in the state of Kansas, Bill Self's Jayhawks did not make the guard an offer, something the program almost certainly regrets in hindsight.

In fact, Wagler, when he was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year said he grew up a Kansas fan.

Don't show this to Bill Self #illini pic.twitter.com/8B9qJTFXrU

Keaton Wagler NBA projection

Thanks to his outstanding freshman season, Wagler has set quickly himself up for a lengthy NBA career. He's being projected as a lottery pick in the upcoming 2026 draft, assuming he declares.

In The Sporting News' latest 2026 NBA Mock Draft, Wagler was projected to land at No. 7 to the Atlanta Hawks. 

The 2026 Draft is considered a deep one already, with a ton of talented freshman across college basketball this season. Wagler is unlikely to land in the top-three or four picks, should he declare, but his scoring talents have made him a virtual lock to be a lottery pick.

Tankathon has Wagler as the No. 7 player on its 2026 Draft Big Board.

MORE: Ranking 10 best NBA Draft prospects in 2026 March Madness