Final Four 2026 picks, predictions against spread: Why UConn, Michigan are best bets to reach national title game

Will the chalk continue to dominate at the Final Four? 

The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament continues at the Final Four from April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. 

No. 2 UConn (32-5) meets No. 3 Illinois (28-8) in the national semifinal at 6:09 p.m. on Saturday. The Huskies rallied for an incredible 73-72 victory against No. 1 Duke on a last-second 3-pointer by Braylon Mullins.

Illinois is making its first Final Four appearance since 2005. The Illini won the South Region behind a strong performance from Keaton Wagler, who scored 25 points in the 71-59 victory against No. 9 Iowa in the Elite Eight. 

No. 1 Arizona (36-2) takes on No. 1 Michigan (35-3) in the other semifinal at 8:49 p.m. The Wildcats stormed through the West Region. Freshman Koa Peat had 20 points in the 79-64 victory against No. 2 Purdue in the Elite Eight. Michigan advanced to the Final Four with a 95-62 victory against No. 6 Tennessee in the Midwest Region final. The Wolverines continue to roll behind guard Yaxel Lendeborg, who had 27 points against the Volunteers.

UConn coach Dan Hurley will look for a third national championship. Illinois' Brad Underwood, Arizona's Tommy Lloyd and Michigan's Dusty May – have a chance to win their first. 

Which two teams will advance to Monday's national championship game? Here is a closer look at each semifinal. We are 46-14 S/U and 31-29 ATS in the tournament: 

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Final Four odds 2026

Below are the opening March Madness odds for the 2026 Final Four semifinals, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for each game according to Caesars:

2026 Final Four picks, predictions 

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (Semifinal), 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/HBO Max 

UConn will be riding the emotional high of rallying from 19 points to beat Duke in the Elite Eight. 

Tarris Reed averages 21.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in the tournament from the post. The 6-foot-10 forward will challenge the Illini defense, which has been dominant in the tournament. The Illini have allowed 59.8 points per game, and they held their last three opponents to less than 60. The front line is imposing with David Mirkovic (6-foot-9) and center Tomislav Ivisic (7-0), and Jake Davis (6-6). Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2), who comes off the bench. Iowa made just seven shots inside the 3-point line. 

Wagler and Mirkovic are the high-percentage scorers. Wagler had his best shooting night against the Hawkeyes, and he is hitting 44% from 3-point range in the tournament. Mirkovic averages 11 rebounds in four tournament games. UConn defends the perimeter well with guards Solomon Ball and Silas Demery. They combined for three steals and just two turnovers in the tournament. 

UConn also has a clutch shooter with Alex Karaban, who is 38.7% from 3-point range in the tournament. Mullins' buzzer-beater was his only make from 3-point range in five attempts against the Blue Devils. Jayden Ross and Malachi Smith are key role players off the bench, and 7-foot-1 center Eric Reibe could see more minutes from the Illini. 

Junior Andrej Stojakovic has been a breakout performer in the tournament off the bench. He averaged 17 points and three rebounds in the last three games with increased minutes, and he's done that with just five 3-point attempts. Point guard Kylan Boswell had just three turnovers.

The Huskies beat Michigan State and Duke in the second weekend and held those teams to an average of 67.5 points per game. This could be a slugfest in the first half, and UConn will need to match Illinois in the rebounding battle. 

UConn has allowed more than 75 points five times this season. Illinois is 2-7 S/U when it allows more than 80 points. This game will finish in the 70s, and the Huskies keep their bid for three championships in four years alive. 

Final score: UConn 74, Illinois 70

Aaron Baker/USA TODAY Network

No. 1 Michigan (-1) vs. No. 1 Arizona (Semifinal), 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/HBO Max 

This is a heavyweight matchup between two teams that have dominated in the tournament to this point under Lloyd and May. Michigan has won its tournament games by an average of 22.5 points per game with its high-scoring offense. Arizona won four tournament games by an average of 20.5 points per game, and most of that production comes from a balanced starting five. 

Arizona has three impressive freshmen in its starting lineup. Brayden Burries and Peat get most of the attention. Ivan Kharchenkov – a 6-foot-7 forward – averaged 16.5 points on 11 of 17 shooting in the victories against Arkansas and Purdue. All three have been efficient scorers this season. 

Motiejus Krivas – a 7-foot-2 center – averages 8.2 rebounds. Senior forward Tobe Awaka has hit double-figures twice in the tournament, and Anthony Dell'Orso and Dwayne Aristode are the rest of an eight-man rotation. It is not a deep bench. 

Senior point guard Jaden Bradley ties that together. All five Arizona starters can score and rebound, and they push the tempo in Lloyd's offense. The Wildcats rank eighth in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

POHNL: Arizona's counterpunch too much for Purdue

Lendeborg has elevated his play in the tournament in all facets for Michigan. He averages 21 points per game and has shot 50% from 3-point range and he has been productive when driving to the basket. 

The Wolverines also have the size in the interior with Aday Mara – a 7-foot-3 center – and Morez Johnson – a 6-foot-9 forward. Michigan's interior scoring opens 3-point shots for Nimari Burnett and Trey McKenney – a freshman who has been an explosive scorer off the bench. 

Junior point guard Elliot Cadeau ties that together. The matchup with Bradley is intriguing, and there are so many scoring options on both sides. Which front line controls the rebound for second-chance baskets? Michigan shoots 44.6% from 3-point range in the tournament. The Wildcats are at 43.4% but they rely less on the outside shot. Both teams have averaged 9.5 turnovers pre game in the tournament. It has the makings to be one of the best Final Four semifinals of all time. 

Arizona is 6-2 S/U when it allows 80 points or more. Michigan is 5-2 S/U in the same situation. Which team is more comfortable when both teams hit that mark? 

Final score: Michigan 83, Arizona 80 

DECOURCY: Yaxel Lendeborg is old, but he's still has a higher ceiling