Kazakhstan Votes on New Constitution as Leader Eyes Succession

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Photographer: Contributor/Getty Images Photo by Contributor /Getty Images

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Kazakhstan holds a referendum Sunday on a new constitution as President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev continues to reshape the political system in Central Asia’s largest energy exporter before his term ends in 2029.  

Article content

Voters in the nation of 20.5 million are being asked to support changes that include replacing the current bicameral parliament with a single chamber of lawmakers and creating the post of vice president, who would succeed the head of state in the event of an early departure from office. 

Article content

Article content

Article content

“Today, a new model of government is being proposed where all branches of government will be equally independent in decision-making,” Tokayev told a meeting of regional lawmakers on Thursday. “The president will ensure their smooth and coordinated work.”

Article content

Article content

If the constitutional amendments are approved, Kazakhstan will be on course for new parliamentary elections as the existing legislature will cease its work by July 1. Polling in the referendum opens at 7 a.m. in Kazakhstan and is scheduled to close at 8 p.m. The Central Election Commission is set to announce preliminary results on Monday.

Article content

A former head of the Senate, Tokayev was handed the presidency in 2019 by former longtime ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev, who stepped down before the end of his term. He then called snap elections to confirm his rule.

Article content

After deadly riots sparked by an increase in fuel prices in 2022 that Tokayev called an attempted coup, the Kazakh leader then called a referendum to limit the presidency to a single seven-year term. He followed that by holding another early election where he was reelected under the new system, which requires him to step down in 2029.

Article content

Article content

“Tokayev could use the constitutional referendum as justification for a new seven-year term. Or he could step down early and assume the position of vice president, with his successor installed as president,” said Kate Mallinson, a partner at PRISM Strategic Intelligence Ltd. in London. 

Article content

Still, after Nazarbayev concentrated power in the presidency in 1995, abolishing the position of vice president and splitting power between two houses of parliament, “the constitutional reform would return Kazakhstan to an era when power was more evenly distributed,” she said. 

Article content

Tokayev, who’s 72, has denied that he’ll seek reelection again. In January, he said that the reform of parliament wouldn’t be carried out to enable him to become its chairman.

Article content

The proposed changes will also remove the ability of parliament to amend the constitution, reserving that power solely to a referendum. Tokayev said this would prevent amendments being introduced “in the interests of certain political groups.”

Article content

The vote is taking place even as Tokayev said in September that the referendum could be held in 2027 following at least a year of debate. In October, the government froze prices for fuel and utilities and now plans to resume gradual increases from the second quarter, adding to concerns about persistent inflation.

Article content

The referendum’s unlikely to lead to an extension in the presidential term, S&P Global Ratings said last month, affirming Kazakhstan’s BBB- rating with a positive outlook. “The social fabric in the country appears to have somewhat healed since the civil unrest of 2022 and surveys indicate broader consensus around the direction of reforms.”

Article content