Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction: NFL Week 16 picks, odds, player props

The Broncos have punched their ticket to the dance and the Jaguars aren’t far behind them, but playoff positioning remains unsettled. 

This AFC heavyweight bout has momentum on both sides: Denver (12-2) stretched its winning streak to 11 games with a 34-26 topping of Green Bay and Jacksonville (10-4) massacred the Jets 48-20 to win its fifth straight.

Let’s offer credit where it’s due to Sean Payton, who has kept the Broncos moving forward in each of the three seasons he’s been at the helm. It amounted to one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, pairing a stifling, sack-heavy defense with an adaptable offense. 

For what it was worth against the lowly Jets, Trevor Lawrence is white-hot off a five-touchdown performance where he spun 330 yards. Through the Jags’ five-game win streak, he is throwing 242.2 yards and propelling the offense to 34.2 points per game. 

Jaguars vs. Broncos odds, prediction

The Jags’ defense excels against the run; no team has let up fewer scrimmage yards. They can create turnovers through challenging passing lanes and taking chances underneath. Jacksonville has picked off opposing quarterbacks 18 times, the second-most league-wide. Though that hasn’t masked a forgiving secondary that’s recent success has come against unstable quarterbacks. 

Trevor Lawrence tossed five touchdowns against the Jets in Week 15. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now playing the big-bad Broncos in the altitude at Mile High, the line here is closer than it should be due to this recent success. 

The Jaguars are most fierce when Travis Etienne is controlling tempo out of the backfield. Denver contains the run almost identically to Jacksonville, allowing 3.8 yards per attempt. If the Broncos contain Etienne, Lawrence becomes a one-dimensional threat.

Betting on the NFL?

• Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
• Check out the best NFL betting sites
• Get the BetMGM Bonus Code

Lawrence’s weaker outings have come when pressure happens early and often. Denver pressures quarterbacks at a 29.5 percent clip, the second-highest overall. The Broncos and their league-leading 58 sacks should be a stark adjustment from the recent coverage Lawrence has seen.

Bo Nix is getting the right protection from his offensive line to execute, hence the four scores he engineered last week. He’s only been sacked 16 times through 14 games. Give him enough time in the pocket and the plays usually fall in line.  

THE PLAY: Broncos -3.5 (FanDuel, -102)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.