Home Run Derby bracket 2026: Full list of contestants, odds, predictions for the winner

The Home Run Derby has a new home in 2026, as it will air exclusively on Netflix for the first time, and it has some new rules after MLB tweaked the format once again.

Regardless of the platform, the stadium or the rules, however, home runs are always promised. 

This year's derby field includes two hometown favorites in Philadelphia, last year's runner-up, a sensational rookie and more as eight sluggers compete for a $1 million prize.

Here's a look at the 2026 Home Run Derby bracket, odds, predictions and more.

MORE: Ranking the 13 greatest Home Run Derby performances in history

Home Run Derby bracket 2026

Round 1

Semifinals

No. 1 seed vs. No. 4 seed

No. 2 seed vs. No. 3 seed

Finals

MORE: Does the Home Run Derby actually ruin players' swings?

How does the MLB Home Run Derby work?

MLB altered the Home Run Derby format again for this year, eliminating timers on each round. Instead, players have a certain number of swings in each round: 20 in Round 1, 15 in Round 2 and 15 in the finals. There is no longer a bonus round, but hitters who hit a home run on their final swing can continue to swing until they fall short of a home run.

For the third consecutive year, the first round doesn't include a bracket. The top four home run hitters all advance and enter into a bracket based on their first round home run totals. The two semifinal winners go head-to-head in the finals.

Home run distance serves as the tiebreaker in Round 1, while a swing-off consisting of three swings would break ties in the semifinals and finals.

The new format is aimed at making fatigue less of a factor and giving fans the chance to admire home runs. Under the previous format, players were incentivized to swing at just about every pitch and often wore themselves out, while the fast-paced nature of the format made it difficult to appreciate home run balls while they were still in the air.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby contestants

• OF Jac Caglianone, Royals
• 3B Junior Caminero, Rays
• 1B Willson Contreras, Red Sox
• 1B Bryce Harper, Phillies
• 1B Munetaka Murakami, White Sox
• 1B Ben Rice, Yankees
• DH Kyle Schwarber, Phillies 
• OF Jordan Walker, Cardinals

The derby field includes two hometown favorites, as Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will each try to make Phillies fans proud at Citizens Bank Park. Harper is a former derby winner, having won at Nationals Park in 2018, while Schwarber has participated twice, finishing as the runner-up to Harper in 2018.

The only other player in the field with more than 100 career home runs is Willson Contreras, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career in year one with the Red Sox and is Boston's first derby participant since 2011.

Last year's runner-up, Junior Caminero, is back in the derby after a monstrous stretch to end the first half. Caminero has 28 home runs on the season and 80 for his career despite just turning 23 earlier in July.

Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker are both enjoying breakthrough seasons after disappointing starts to their major league careers and are looking to see that success translate to the derby. Caglianone has 10 home runs since the start of June, while Walker has an OPS just under .900.

The Yankees have a representative in the derby in Ben Rice, whose 29 home runs have set the tone for an otherwise hit-or-miss New York lineup, while White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami hit 20 home runs over the first two months of the season and makes his derby debut just days after coming off the injured list.

2026 Home Run Derby predictions

Dan Treacy: Schwarber is 0-for-2 in Home Run Derby appearances, but he proved in last year's All-Star Game swing-off that he is built for moments like these. With the crowd behind him, he's a safe bet to put up a strong performance. The previous format might have been harder on Schwarber, who is 33 and said his participation was contingent on the health is his back, but the new format should prevent fatigue and allow the Phillies star to preserve his body. 

Winner: Kyle Schwarber

Daniel Mader:  It's tempting to go with Bryce Harper, who seems to live up to all the big moments he's in. Or even Junior Caminero, who mashed at this event last year and is a proven force to be reckoned with. But as Cal Raleigh did last summer, my pick is MLB's home run leader at the break. Schwarber was made for this event but has yet to win it in two previous tries. I think this is the year. Not only will he be backed by Phillies fans in a comfortable ballpark, but Schwarber also showed at last year's All-Star Game swing-off that he can win a homer-based contest in style.

Winner: Kyle Schwarber

2026 Home Run Derby odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Schwarber enters as the betting favorite to win the Home Run Derby at +330, followed by last year's runner-up, Caminero.

Schwarber's raw power and derby make him a no-doubt favorite, but favorites rarely win the derby. Caminero proved in 2025 that he knows how to handle this stage, while Murakami and Caglianone don't have that derby experience but have hit some monster home runs in 2026.

The only former champion in the field, Harper, is tied for the second-worst odds at +850, while Contreras has the most distant odds despite 20 home runs at the All-Star break.