Garry Marr: Renting in Canada is better than it has been in years, but for how long?

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“It’s just a lot harder to find tenants,” said Bourassa-Ochoa, predicting rents and occupancy will fall. “With that in mind, we expect purpose-built rentals to slow down a bit. It’s worrisome.”

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All that supply is good news because it has improved affordability, but she said the risk is that developers will slow down and a supply shortage may return in three or four years.

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A key difference could be that many developers in the marketplace have a long-term lens, one more focused on stable returns in the multifamily rental market.

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Howard Paskowitz, senior vice-president of development and public affairs at Starlight Investments, Canada’s largest apartment landlord with about 50,000 units, said his company still has “thousands” of units planned.

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“We do maintain a long-term vision and are less influenced by short- and medium-term market fluctuations than other developers,” he said, adding that variables such as rising interest rates or softening rates are factored into forecasts.

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But Starlight is heavily focused on infill development, leveraging existing properties in its portfolios to avoid high land-acquisition costs. Paskowitz said reduced condo construction should help the rental industry because it will reduce costs due to less competition.

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“We are very encouraged by the increasing dialogue and tangible action in the reduction of development charges,” he said, adding that it has proven key to some Toronto-area projects.

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He said the company’s investment philosophy is centred on long-term ownership and management, distinguishing it from the condo sector that focuses on immediate sales.

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“We design our rental communities to hold for decades,” he said.

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Tal said many of the projects underway today involve land owned by the company, but the purpose-built market will reach a peak if some aspects of the regulatory environment do not change.

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“Things will change and that includes development charges,” he said.

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He said such charges could be cut 100 per cent in some cities. Toronto development charges were about $130,000 per apartment unit in 2025, according to CMHC data.

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Tal said construction costs are also falling fast.

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“Those two factors can offset the decline in rent,” he said. “That is a situation where more supply could come.”

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He also believes that if rents keep falling, people who were “doubling up” — sharing apartments with roommates, living with parents or delaying moving out — will be enticed to move out.

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The number of housing arrangements that can be described as doubling up has risen by an estimated 20 per cent from 2011 to 2021, reaching more than 17 per cent of the population, according to a report by Tal.

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Hugh Gorman, chief executive of Ottawa-based Colonnade BridgePort, said analyzing the rental market needs to focus on more than the Toronto market and its massive number of unsold condos.

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“We do have a robust pipeline,” he said, adding his group just launched a project two weeks ago. “We do see the demand side of the equation continuing to grow. We are not getting to the point in Ottawa where demand is exceeding supply. A bit of the Toronto narrative is creeping into the rest of the (country).”

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Gorman said there is some pressure on rents, but construction costs have come down and developers with a long-term view are also now willing to accept a lower yield or return on their investment.

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“We are way more conservative on rent growth,” he said. “But we are bullish. We believe we have the right product with an amenity-rich product in transit.”

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Today, it’s better to be a renter than it has been in years.