Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

The weather-influencing La Niña phenomena is making a comeback. Global food prices are rising again as agricultural goods get more costly. And tariff fears are pushing traders to shift metals into North American warehouses.

Author of the article:

Bloomberg News

Yongchang Chin, Annie Lee and Doug Alexander

Published Jan 12, 2025  •  2 minute read

njqks2jjwn92uii7{xw81119_media_dl_1.png Company research

(Bloomberg) — The weather-influencing La Niña phenomena is making a comeback. Global food prices are rising again as agricultural goods get more costly. And tariff fears are pushing traders to shift metals into North American warehouses.

Article content

Article content

Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.

Climate

A long-anticipated La Niña has emerged in the equatorial Pacific, promising to bring drier weather to the southern US and crop growing areas of Argentina and Brazil, while raising risks of floods in Indonesia and northern Australia’s mining areas. The phenomenon occurs when a patch of the Pacific cools and the atmosphere reacts, changing the course of storm tracks worldwide. The current cycle is expected to be short-lived, likely starting to fade between March and May, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.

Article content

Metals

Inventories of gold, silver and copper at Comex warehouses are expanding as traders rush to move the metals into the US due to worries of sweeping tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s pledge to impose universal levies on incoming goods has driven prices of the metals sharply higher in New York, creating opportunities for traders to buy cheaper metals overseas and deliver them into the US. Meanwhile, some investors could face spiraling losses on bets that Comex prices would fall relative to other global benchmarks.

Food Inflation

After two straight years of declining global food prices, the trend is reversing. The United Nations’ food price index, which tracks five commodity groups, rose 6.7% last year, keeping food inflation well above the 10-year average. Rising prices in vegetable oils, butter and meat — beef, poultry and lamb — helped push up the gauge in the past year, according to data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

LNG

A rally in liquefied natural gas has pushed Asian prices to a rare and substantial premium over oil, paving the way for major consumers to shift to cheaper but dirtier fuels. Japan-Korea marker prices for LNG, the Asian benchmark, were as much as 22% more expensive than Brent crude earlier this month on an energy-equivalent basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Gas prices have risen on cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the loss of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine, increasing competition between European and Asian buyers.

Lithium

A persistent lithium glut and the prospect that some mines could be restarted if prices rise means the battery metal is unlikely to mount a significant recovery this year. Lithium prices have plunged since late 2022 on oversupply and slower-than-expected growth in electric vehicle demand, causing some mining capacity to be suspended. The oversupply is expected to ease in 2025, though most analysts are still forecasting a surplus this year.

—With assistance from Brian K. Sullivan and Yvonne Yue Li.

Article content