Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

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(Bloomberg) — The situation in the Middle East remains delicate, even as oil — and gas — continue to flow. But for US refiners, reliance on supply from the region is not as great as it once was. Grid-scale battery installations in the US are projected to reverse their rapid rise. And look what’s happening with the spread between corn and wheat as intense heat batters Europe.

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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.

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Oil

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For a few days, the world’s focus was on the Strait of Hormuz, the 104 mile (167 kilometer) waterway that is a vital conduit for global oil shipments. Even if tensions re-escalate in the Middle East, US refiners have less to worry about than they did in the past. They don’t rely as much now on crude from the region since the shale revolution caused domestic production to boom. If Arab Gulf shipments were to be curtailed, West Coast refiners would be the most exposed. They imported over 20% of their crude from Iraq in 2024.

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LNG

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In addition to oil, a significant chunk of liquefied natural gas production sits behind the Strait of Hormuz and key regions in Europe and northeast Asia rely on supply of exported natural gas from the region. As tensions flared between Iran and Israel, global gas prices swung over the fate of the channel and finally calmed as the conflict eased. On Friday, European natural gas prices posted their biggest weekly retreat in almost two years.

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Copper

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Since US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day in April — when he announced a broad range of tariffs on imported goods — copper stockpiles at US exchange warehouses have been surging and they’re now at the highest level in nearly seven years. Expectations of tariffs on copper imports into the US have caused Comex prices to surge above its international benchmarks. That lucrative price difference between New York and London has prompted traders to ship record volumes to America to get ahead of the potential tariffs.

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European Crops

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Europe’s corn crop will be closely watched over the next 10 days to two weeks as heat blankets the continent. It’s a rare occurrence for corn, which is primarily used for feeding animals, to be cheaper than cost of milling wheat that is used for human consumption. But the spread between the European futures contracts for corn and wheat flipped last week with concerns the current heat wave will hurt corn crops. 

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Batteries

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Battery installations have been climbing steadily in the US since 2021. However, that trend is likely to reverse under Trump tariffs and energy policies, a new report finds. The utility-scale segment of the market is set to contract by 29% next year if Republican lawmakers move forward with cuts to tax credits for the technology, according to the report from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association. That would come after expected growth for grid-scale storage at a record 22% this year.

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—With assistance from Robert Tuttle, Nathan Risser and Yvonne Yue Li.

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