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(Bloomberg) — Oil fell, following its biggest weekly loss in more than two years, as hedge funds piled into bearish bets after a fragile truce between Iran and Israel, and before a likely OPEC+ supply hike.
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Brent dropped to above $67 a barrel after sliding 12% last week, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $65. Iran said it remains skeptical that the US-brokered ceasefire with Israel will last, although President Donald Trump suggested he might back eventual sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic “if they can be peaceful.”
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Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are ready to consider another 411,000 barrel-a-day increase for August when they meet on Sunday, according to several delegates. It would be the fourth month in a row the group agreed on such a bumper hike, triple the initially planned volumes.
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“The trajectory of Iran’s oil exports and its impact on Brent oil futures will likely move to the background in coming days as markets re‑focus on the OPEC+ supply decision,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. OPEC+ likely has “an acceptance that a lower oil price will prevent further market share erosion.”
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Oil is trading near where it started before Israel first attacked Iran on June 13, with futures on track for a 10% loss this quarter, as focus returns to supply and demand balances. Apart from the potential OPEC+ increase, which may worsen a glut forecast for later this year, investors will be focused on trade talks — with just 10 days until Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume.
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There were signs of progress in some negotiations, with Canada rescinding a tax to advance a trade arrangement and seeking a deal by July 21. Meanwhile, the oil demand outlook for China — the biggest crude importer — turned slightly less bearish after factory activity improved for a second month, although it still remained in contraction.
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