Final Jaguars Day draft predictions, who experts love for Jacksonville at pick No. 5 overall

Jacksonville Jaguars fans will want to get the popcorn ready early on Day 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft.

While pundits seem to have an idea of how the first four selections will go down, the Jaguars are the wild-card at pick No. 5 overall. This draft will kick-off a new era in Duval County, with GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen running the draft board, and projections for the team have been all over the map.

The growing consensus, as of draft week, has been that Jacksonville will select hometown kid Ashton Jeanty, the superstar running back prospect out of Boise State. That feels a tad aggressive for a rebuilding squad that already has a well-stocked running back room, led by Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. 

MORE 2025 NFL DRAFT: SN's 7-round mock | Top 250 big board

Coen might want Jeanty, but the team needs serious help on the other side of the football. Position groups like defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback and safety could all be addressed, and the team also needs help on the offensive line and at both wide receiver and tight end.

Will the Jaguars really go with a running back at No. 5 overall? Here’s where the experts landed with 11th-hour projections for Jacksonville in Round 1 of the draft:

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Final Jacksonville Jaguars expert predictions for Day 1

• Peter Schrager, ESPN: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Schrager: “New Jaguars GM James Gladstone has used the phrase "intangibly rich" during the predraft process. Jeanty fits that description as a top-five prospect with rare contact balance, power and explosion. I would personally attack the defensive side of the ball if I were in Jacksonville's shoes, but new coach Liam Coen might want to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence more playmakers. Many around the league believe the Jags are headed in this direction.”

• Field Yates, ESPN: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Yates: “New Jaguars GM James Gladstone has used the phrase "intangibly rich" during the predraft process. Jeanty fits that description as a top-five prospect with rare contact balance, power and explosion. I would personally attack the defensive side of the ball if I were in Jacksonville's shoes, but new coach Liam Coen might want to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence more playmakers. Many around the league believe the Jags are headed in this direction.”

• Todd McShay, The Ringer: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

McShay: “Liam Coen will all but put his foot down with this pick. He needs an offensive weapon, and I’m told that it’ll be Jeanty if Jacksonville stays at no. 5. However, they’d entertain an offer to trade back a few spots if they feel confident that Tetairoa McMillan will still be on the board. They’d need to land before Dallas drafts at no. 12. Chicago might be the most viable option for a potential trade-back at no. 10.”

• Dane Brugler, The Athletic: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Brugler: “If the Jaguars had a chance at a high-level corner here, that is the direction they should go. But this draft is light at the top and Jeanty is the best player available. He would give the Jacksonville offense an immediate upgrade.”

• Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

Kiper Jr.: “With great power and quickness, Graham can get into the backfield to create interior pressure on quarterbacks and drop running backs behind the line of scrimmage. He had 3.5 sacks and 14 run stops last season. With Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker collapsing the pocket on either side, Graham could have an immediate impact. And the Jaguars -- who ranked 31st in yards allowed per play in 2024 (5.9) -- could use all the help they can get.”

• Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Jeremiah: Based on everything I’ve heard from talking to people around the league, the expectation is the Jaguars will pick either Jeanty or Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan here. I’ll go with the higher-rated player on my board.

• Charles Davis, NFL.com: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Davis: “OK, this is where we hear the surprised roar. New head coach Liam Coen gets an elite weapon to help him unlock all of QB Trevor Lawrence's potential.”

• Bucky Brooks, NFL.com: Mason Graham, DT,  Michigan

Brooks: “The safest pick in the draft would give the Jaguars a blue-chip defender in the middle of a defensive line that needs more “hard hat and lunch pail” guys.”

• Trevor Sikkema, Pro Football Focus: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Sikkema: “I believe the Jaguars are leaning toward selecting an offensive playmaker with their first pick, with plans to address the trenches in later rounds. By all accounts, NFL teams love not only the player Jeanty is but also the person he is. He’s one of just three blue-chip prospects in the class, and adding him gives Jacksonville a dynamic run game to build around.”

• Eric Edholm, NFL.com: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Edholm: “I'm gonna flip it around. DT Mason Graham going here began to feel way too chalky for me recently. I just think Liam Coen will want to add a playmaker to his offense with the new regime's first pick.”

• OUR PREDICTION: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan.

Why he’s the pick: There’s obviously a ton of buzz around Jeanty, but the week before the NFL Draft is known as “lying season” for a reason. Jeanty hasn’t been projected as a top-five prospect until this past week. Graham has been there all year. He piled up 34 total pressures and five sacks last season, and was an absolute bully in the season finale against eventual national champion Ohio State. The Jaguars have to address a defense that ranked among the worst in football in 2024, and that starts with getting to the quarterback. Even with a pair of established EDGE rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Trevon Walker, Jacksonville’s pass rush was inconsistent. Adding a 320-pound enforcer to the middle of the defensive front would help change that.

Jeanty’s talent is undeniable, and the local ties to Duval County are fun. But smart, rebuilding franchises don’t sell out for a running back with a top five pick. Unless they can find a trade partner, like the Chicago Bears, willing to offer up a haul of picks to come up to No. 5 overall, the Jags should pass on the shiny offensive toy and add the franchise defensive tackle who’s expected to fall into their laps.

MORE: Jaguars could make mega trade for superstar prospect not named Ashton Jeanty, NFL reporter says