Fed to Take in Stride Another Month of Tame Inflation

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Elsewhere, industrial profits in China, inflation across the euro zone, and rate cuts in South Korea and New Zealand may be among the highlights.

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Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

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Asia

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The wave of economic readings from Asia continues, with key growth indicators from India and Taiwan as well as central bank decisions in South Korea and New Zealand.

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Observers will get a better sense of how Trump’s trade war is hitting commerce, starting with Hong Kong’s April trade data due on Monday. On Wednesday, Sri Lanka publishes trade figures for April. Thailand and the Philippines release data on April exports and imports Friday.

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Production across the region, the world’s factory floor, will also be in focus. China on Tuesday is set to report industrial profits for April, an area under increased pressure as deflation and the trade war weigh. India releases industrial production figures on Wednesday, which are forecast to have slowed. And South Korea and Japan report April industrial production on Friday that are also expected to slow — and in Japan’s case contract — as demand wanes.

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South Korea’s central bank is seen cutting rates on Thursday by a quarter point, to 2.5%, to support growth. They’ll follow New Zealand’s monetary authorities, which are expected to lower the key policy rate by a quarter point to 3.25% on Wednesday. South Korea also releases April retail sales and May consumer confidence in the coming week. 

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Japan reports a ream of data on the rest of the economy. That includes April producer prices on Monday, followed by May consumer prices for Tokyo on Friday. The jobless rate was likely unchanged in April, and retail sales on Friday are set to show that activity remained largely steady.

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Other major releases include India’s first-quarter GDP reading on Friday, which is forecast to have strengthened. Australia will get April readings on consumer price inflation, which has been running hot lately, and retail sales, which are likely to remain steady.

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Elsewhere, Macau on Thursday reports its hotel occupancy rate for last month, an insight into Chinese tourism in Asia’s casino capital.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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The working week will be shorter in several countries. As with the US, the UK has Monday off, while Thursday is a holiday across northern continental Europe. 

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With the European Central Bank lining up for a further rate cut in June, Thursday marks the start of a pre-decision blackout period for officials. Policymakers scheduled to speak before then include President Christine Lagarde on Monday, as well as governors of the French and German central banks.

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Several reports in the euro region are likely to interest investors, with inflation numbers scheduled in all four of its top economies, starting with France on Tuesday. Price growth there is seen staying at 0.9%. 

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The other three are scheduled for Friday, with results at 1.9% anticipated in Italy and 2% in both Spain and Germany. Together, those economies account for more than 70% of the overall euro area.

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If the surveys are accurate, May will mark the first time in eight months, and only the second time since 2021, that annual consumer-price growth hasn’t exceeded the ECB’s 2% goal in any of those countries.