Fed’s Barkin Says Repeated Supply Shocks Test Inflation Anchor

1 hour ago 4

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(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said the ability of businesses and consumers to tolerate the latest in a series of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to “look through” higher inflation without raising interest rates.

Financial Post

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“With inflation above our 2% target for over five years now, it’s worth asking whether the cumulative impact of so many waves risks loosening the anchor,” Barkin said Thursday in remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina. “For me, it comes down to how much businesses, consumers, and inflation expectations can take.”

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Barkin’s comments come as an energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war has shifted sentiment among Fed officials away from any consideration of rate cuts in the near term. A growing number of them are advocating a decision to signal that the central bank’s next move is just as likely to be a hike as a cut.

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The Richmond Fed chief suggested he’s become more concerned about the possibility that the US has entered a new era in which supply shocks will prove more frequent — driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, more severe weather events, rising government debt and other forces.

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For the time being, he said, the Fed’s monetary policy setting is “well positioned” to manage risks to both the labor market and inflation.

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Investors now see a quarter-point rate increase by the end of 2026 as probable, according to federal funds futures.

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