ESPN's Joe Lunardi explains why bubble teams need a better standard

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi says the debate surrounding this year’s NCAA Tournament bubble may be louder than usual, but the underlying issue remains the same: too many teams hovering around .500 records are still being seriously considered for at-large bids.

During ESPN’s tournament coverage, Lunardi pushed back on the idea that the bubble is historically weak in 2026. He argued the sport has gradually shifted the definition of what qualifies as a “bubble team.” This has led to team being put in the conversation. 

“This is the same bubble it always is,” Lunardi said. “We’ve just changed the way we talk about it.”

According to Lunardi, the real problem is the conversation often centers on Power Four teams with mediocre records instead of programs that have consistently won games. Mid-major schools often produce stronger results than major conference teams sitting around the break-even mark.

“We should be talking about Belmont, Liberty and Stephen F. Austin,” Lunardi said. “Teams that have done better than going .500.”

Heading into Selection Sunday, Lunardi estimated there were roughly eight teams competing for five remaining tournament spots. Programs such as VCU, Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, Marquette, New Mexico and Miami (OH) were all part of the crowded bubble picture.

That number could shrink even further depending on conference tournament results. Lunardi believes the bigger issue is establishing minimum eligibility standards for at-large teams. While he once advocated for a return to the traditional 64-team bracket, he now favors setting a floor that prevents losing or .500 teams from entering the conversation.

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“The fact that we’re talking about teams like Auburn at 17-16 tells you something,” Lunardi said. “Fans understand winning. We keep score for a reason.”

Even so, Lunardi acknowledges the challenge facing the selection committee. Excluding a team that wins nearly every game in a mid-major conference could also send a troubling message.

“It’s a difficult balance,” he said. “But there has to be some standard.”

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