Dolphins have 36.7% reason to be worried about Malik Willis signing

The Miami Dolphins have been tearing down their roster this offseason for the start of a major rebuild. This isn't going to be a one-year rebuild, as the Dolphins will need multiple seasons to turn this thing around.

But, despite cutting Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and trading Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins spent $67.5 million on Malik Willis to be their new quarterback.

According to Bill Barnwell of ESPN's findings over 10 years from 2013 through 2022, this big Willis signing does not bode well for the Dolphins to be a successful one.

Malik Willis' signing has only 36.7% chance to work out

Barnwell found that, of the free agent quarterbacks that signed new deals from 2013 through 2022 with new teams, there was just a 36.7% success rate for those signings. But things might be even worse for the Dolphins than that initial number reveals.

"Because even backup quarterbacks make enough to land in the top 50 some years, the success rate here is boosted by players who were solid in a handful of starts," Barnwell writes.

Essentially, when teams sign a new starting quarterback, and not a backup, there is a less than 36.7% chance that such a signing will work out.

More: Dolphins agree to $67.5 million deal with Malik Willis

Barnwell's findings from this study, although it doesn't use the last few years of data, do mean some bad news for the Dolphins.

The Willis signing has less than a 40% chance to work out, with only wide receiver (30.4%) and running back (10.0%) free agent signings having less of a chance to succeed.

This is a big gamble from the Dolphins, and while they have a way to get out of this deal if Willis doesn't work out as a starter after the 2027 season, history doesn't bode well for Willis to be a successful signing.

More Dolphins news:

• De'Von Achane expected to have extension talks with Dolphins
• Tua Tagovailoa is big winner of free agency after joining Falcons
• Tua Tagovailoa quickly picked Falcons after release from Dolphins
• Dolphins trade Minkah Fitzpatrick to Jets for late round pick
• Tua Tagovailoa will have $60+ million cap hit for Dolphins in 2026