Dodgers' overlooked $30M Kyle Tucker component sounds alarm despite outbidding Mets, Blue Jays

The biggest name on the market, Kyle Tucker, has picked up major steam over the past week, though it remained unclear who would ultimately sign him. The New York Mets made an offer to Tucker, but it appeared likely that the Los Angeles Dodgers would be able to present a higher-value contract.

“If the New York Mets are in the range of offering $120 million to $140 million for over three years to free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker, as league sources on Tuesday suggested is the case, the question is whether that will be enough. It is possible that the Toronto Blue Jays or the Los Angeles Dodgers, two other contenders for Tucker, offer more than New York. It is also possible that the Mets could go up, but they’ve shown a desire so far this offseason to act with some level of discipline,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon said.

The Dodgers ultimately got a deal done with Tucker on Thursday night, marking their third consecutive offseason landing the top free agent on the market.

“Kyle Tucker, the consensus best player available in free agency, agreed to join the Dodgers on Thursday, sources told ESPN, a little more than a month after star closer Edwin Diaz did the same. Tucker's deal is for four years at $240 million and includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers,” ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez wrote.

However, the deferrals in the contract tell another story—one that strongly suggests the deal may not reach its fourth year.

“Net present value of Tucker’s deal will be $57M per season, beating Juan Soto’s previous record by more than $6M, sources tell The Athletic. Deferrals total $30M - $10M in each of last three seasons. First with deferred amount,” MLB reporter Ken Rosenthal posted.

Following this agreement, there is little doubt that another lockout is likely once the 2026 season concludes. Tucker understands that after a new CBA is finalized and financial structures are settled, he can pursue a deal that won’t be affected by uncertainty surrounding the next agreement.

Perhaps the Dodgers recognized this when they agreed to the contract. If not, Tucker and his representation may have significantly outmaneuvered Los Angeles. The primary objective for Tucker was to secure a high average annual value, which makes the heavy deferrals somewhat puzzling. As a result, Tucker could very well be out of Los Angeles after just two seasons with the Dodgers.

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