It seems like a lifetime ago, but in reality it has been only four seasons since the Bucks won the NBA championship. It seemed reasonable back then to think that Giannis Antetokounmpo could win multiple titles in Milwaukee. Now, that dream looks dead.
Giannis remains a top-three player in the league and has played unbelievably in the playoffs over the past three seasons. It's hard to imagine that he could do any more than he already has.
Giannis last 11 playoff games:
28/15/6
37/12/6
34/18/7
36/12/1
38/20/3
25/20/9
44/20/6
40/11/3
34/18/5
42/12/8
28/9/7
Playoff average
36.7 PPG 14.5 RPG 6.1 APG
3-8 record
Did everything he can pic.twitter.com/4imvq2mv3y
Those MVP-level contributions haven't been enough. The Bucks haven't made it out of the first round since 2022, and it looks like that trend will continue after a devastating injury to Damian Lillard on Sunday that looked like it could be an Achilles tear.
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If Lillard did tear that Achilles, then he will almost certainly be out for the entirety of next season. The Bucks didn't have enough to compete with him. Without him, they have zero shot at making a serious run. If Giannis wants to win a championship over the next few seasons, then he may have to look to another city, because the Bucks don't have any way out of this.
Milwaukee can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. Jrue Holiday is gone, as is Khris Middleton. They have failed to build the next iteration of their team over the past several seasons, and they're not particularly close to getting there. They have no good young prospects on their roster, several declining veterans and only one unprotected first-round pick available to move in a trade.
Running back the same team will only continue the Bucks' slow demise. Brook Lopez will be a 37-year-old free agent this summer. A decision will also have to be made on fellow free agent Gary Trent Jr. The rest of their rotation players are already under guaranteed contracts for next season, including $22.4 million owed to an ineffective Kyle Kuzma.
Giannis should not get moved unless he requests a trade. He's earned that right. That may be coming sooner rather than later. Here's what the team will look like if he stays and what will happen if he goes.
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Will the Bucks trade Damian Lillard?
The Bucks could theoretically try to find a new superstar to pair alongside Giannis. Lillard had been good prior to his injury from a statistical standpoint, averaging 24.9 points and 7.1 assists during the regular season and making his ninth All-Star game.
Unfortunately for the Bucks, Lillard has zero trade value this summer if he did indeed tear his Achilles. The 34-year-old is making a whopping $54.0 million next year and has a player option for $58.5 million in 2026-27. The Bucks will probably be paying him next season without getting a single game out of him.
There's no telling how effective Lillard will be in two years given his age and the severity of that injury. It's possible that the Bucks can trade him in a year or so once he comes back. Even then, it's doubtful that he would have much trade value.
The Bucks are probably stuck with that deal for a while. It will be impossible to build a contender with that $54 million dead on their cap given how little flexibility they had even before Lillard went down.
MORE: How long is Damian Lillard out? Achilles injury timeline, return date, latest updates for Bucks star
Will the Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo?
The trade chatter around Giannis is going to get louder and louder because of how difficult it will be to build a true contender around him throughout the remainder of his prime. They painted themselves into a corner with win-now moves that mortgaged their future, such as trading five second-rounders for Jae Crowder and trading Donte DiVincenzo for an ineffective Serge Ibaka. They also did not draft well in order to replenish their talent pool. The best path forward for them is to replenish that asset base and start over.
The 2026 draft is going to be a very strong one at the top. If the Bucks did want to rebuild, then they could get a massive haul for Giannis while bottoming out to try to land a player like Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson.
A Giannis trade could shift the entire landscape of the NBA. He's still certainly good enough to win a championship. Teams like the Thunder, Nets, or Rockets could throw five or more first-round picks at the Bucks, along with some high-level prospects. That may seem like a high price, but Mikal Bridges got that type of godfather offer from the Knicks last summer.
Every single franchise will be trying to put forth their best offer in order to grab the star. The Rockets, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Thunder, Magic, and Spurs stand out as the best-positioned teams to land him from an asset and fit perspective.
How the Bucks add talent in free agency
If Giannis wants to try and ride it out in Milwaukee, then they still have some avenues to add minor talent. They're sending their No. 19 pick to Brooklyn, but they will still have the no. 47 pick in the draft.
They will also have the midlevel exception of roughly $14 million, assuming that they don't spend much to bring Lopez back. They could sign a low-end starter with that money in an uninspiring free agency class.
Can Doc Rivers survive the summer?
If the Bucks do run it back, then they could always try to fire the coach. It would be the third time that they've done it in two years.
Rivers originally signed a contract in January of 2024 that ran through the 2026-27 season, paying him $40 million. At the time, Milwaukee was also paying Mike Budenholzer and Adrian Griffin.
Budenholzer likely had offsetting language that puts the Suns on the hook for his remaining salary. They will still owe Griffin an additional $8 million over the next two seasons. Will they pay three coaches again?
There are some very good coaches who are available if the Bucks do believe that a fresh voice could get them more wins. Budenholzer probably isn't coming back, but Michael Malone and Taylor Jenkins would be good replacements. Jeff Van Gundy has done a terrific job with the Clippers defense and could get the Bucks defending back at their high level.
Rivers hasn't been an amazing coach by any means. He did get the Bucks a victory in the NBA Cup. His playoff runs have always been lacking though, with the exception of the title that he won with Boston almost two decades ago. Despite those criticisms, he's not the problem for this team.
Another coach might be able to get a little more out of this group, but the talent on the roster is what it is. General manager John Horst was somewhat surprisingly extended with the Bucks down 0-2 in their series. He will be the one to choose which of these avenues to pursue.