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How will teams respond after the first set of College Football Playoff rankings?
We'll find out in Week 11. There are 15 games involving FBS teams in the AP Top 25, including a pair of matchups between ranked teams.
The marquee matchup of the weekend is in the Big 12. No. 8 BYU is on the road at No. 9 Texas Tech at 12 p.m. on ABC. The Red Raiders are double-digit favorites, which suggests the Cougars could fall from the ranks of the unbeaten teams.
No. 3 Texas A&M will put its unbeaten record to the test at 3:30 p.m. on ABC against No. 19 Missouri. That is one of two remaining road games on the Aggies' schedule.No. 6 Oregon travels to Iowa in a tricky Big Ten road test in the same window. LSU takes on Alabama at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. That is the best bet in the prime-time schedule.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 11. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 127-42 (13-4 in Week 10)
Against the spread: 78-87-4 (8-8-1 in Week 10)
MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 10
Week 11 picks against the spread
Friday, Nov. 7
Northwestern at No. 20 USC (-14.5) (9 p.m., Fox)
The Trojans have no margin for error in the CFP race. The Wildcats have two 20-point losses this season, and the offense has not scored more than 22 points against Power 4 competition. The Wildcats do average 180 rushing yards per game – but it will take more than two USC turnovers to pull the upset.
Pick: USC wins 34-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 22 Memphis (-6.5) at Tulane (9 p.m., ESPN)
Tulane has won the last two meetings in this series by 10 points, but the Green Wave are coming off a bad loss at UTSA. Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis averages 327 yards of total offense that last two weeks – and the Tigers are 4-0 S/U on the road. Still, there is value in the home underdog.
Pick: Memphis wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 8
No. 5 Georgia (-7.5) at Mississippi State (12 p.m., SEC Network)
Georgia continues to live on the edge in the SEC – and this is just their second trip to Starkville since 2010. Mississippi State has one-score overtime losses against Tennessee and Texas. That's the tease to take Mississippi State here, but Georgia had its scare against Florida last week.
Pick: Georgia wins 31-19 and COVERS the spread.
No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech (-10.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
This is BYU's first trip to Lubbock since 1940. The Red Raiders average 47.8 points per game at home, and Behren Morton's return lifted the offense. This is going to be a test for BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. BYU is 7-1 ATS as an underdog since joining the Big 12.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 34-27 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 2 Indiana (-14) at Penn State (12 p.m., Fox)
It seems incredible to give this many points at Penn State – but Indiana has been a machine with the running game that averages 245.7 yards per game. How much can Penn State slow that down? Indiana is 1-1 ATS in Big Ten play when favored by less than 20 points, so this could depend on a late TD. When has that ever stopped Curt Cignetti?
Pick: Indiana wins 35-17 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Curt Cignetti's extension keeps him out of Penn State mix
No. 1 Ohio State (-28.5) at Purdue (1 p.m., BTN)
The Buckeyes are massive favorites again. Ohio State has covered the spread in all five Big Ten games, and they have outscored Purdue 86-7 in the last two meetings. The Boilermakers are 2-1 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, but the Buckeyes are a different machine than USC, Notre Dame or Michigan.
Pick: Ohio State wins 41-7 and COVERS the spread.
No. 3 Texas A&M (-6) at No. 19 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Texas A&M is 3-0 S/U on the road, and the Aggies have averaged 45 points per game in those victories. Missouri is coming off a bye week and has two one-score losses this season. Freshman Matt Zollers had an extra week to prepare for his first start, but the Texas A&M pressure – led by Cashius Howell – will eventually land.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 30-20 and COVERS the spread.
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (-28.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Syracuse is averaging just 12 points per game through a five-game losing streak. Will the Orange turn back to Rickie Collins against the Hurricanes? Miami is coming off a stunning loss at SMU. The Orange are 2-1 ATS as underdogs of 17 points or more. The Hurricanes will feast against a run defense that allowed an average of 224.5 rushing yards against Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
Pick: Miami wins 39-13 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Does Miami still have a path to the CFP?
No. 6 Oregon (-6) at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Is this the spot for the Kirk Ferentz special? Oregon had a bye week to prepare for the trip to Kinnick Stadium. Iowa allows 2.6 yards per rushing attempt – and if that holds up then Dante Moore will have to make a handful of game-changing plays in the passing game. This feels like Oregon should pull through knowing they are 6-0 S/U in Big Ten games that require travel of two time zones or more. It just has those ingredients for Ferentz we've seen in the past.
Pick: Oregon wins 31-17 and COVERS the spread.
Auburn at No. 15 Vanderbilt (-7) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
Will Auburn have the emotional bump that comes with the firing of Hugh Freeze? The Tigers have four SEC losses by seven points or less. Vanderbilt beat Auburn 17-7 last season. It's tough to trust Auburn's offense, especially against the Commodores. Diego Pavia took sacks last week and still nearly led a fourth-quarter comeback against Texas.
Pick: Vanderbilt wins 24-14 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Six names to watch in Auburn's search to replace Hugh Freeze
No. 24 Washington (-11) at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN)
The Badgers have scored just 41 points through a six-game losing streak. The bye week should help, and Washington is 1-5 S/U in Big Ten games that require travel of two time zones or more. Washington quarterback Demond Williams has a 170 passer rating, but he has been sacked 18 times. We still can't trust the Wisconsin offense.
Pick: Washington wins 27-13 and COVERS the spread.
Wake Forest at No. 12 Virginia (-6.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
How long can the Cavaliers keep this up? Virginia is in position to make a run to the ACC championship game, but that requires avoiding the upset bug against the Demon Deacons. The Cavaliers have a plus-5 turnover margin at home, and Wake Forest is coming off a 42-7 loss at Florida State. The Cavaliers will celebrate their first home victory against the Demon Deacons since 2007.
Pick: Virginia wins 28-18 and COVERS the spread.
Cal at No. 14 Louisville (-19) (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Cal is on a two-game losing streak, but the Golden Bears have been competitive in losses to Virginia Tech and Virginia. Can they take that on the road at Louisville? The Cardinals have a dominant running game around Isaac Brown – who has 782 rushing yards on 8.6 yards per carry. Cal is 2-3 ATS as an underdog, but this is the first double-digit spread.
Pick: Louisville wins 38-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
How will LSU respond with interim coach Frank Wilson? Alabama has allowed 24 points or less in five SEC victories, and that total seems like a best-case scenario for a struggling LSU offense. Alabama is 4-0 ATS at home, but the last two hit the under. Look for Ty Simpson to continue building a Heisman Trophy case in November.
Pick: Alabama wins 29-17 and COVERS the spread.
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (-24.5) (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
The Irish routed Navy in this matchup the last two years – including a 51-14 victory in Annapolis last season. The Midshipmen are coming off a 31-17 loss against North Texas that was fueled by three turnovers. Navy had six turnovers against the Irish last season. Blake Horvath will lead a few TD drives, but there is no slowing down Notre Dame's rushing attack. Jeremiyah Love has 364 yards on 8.9 yards per carry in the Irish's last two games.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 42-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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