Welcome to Week 8, the start of the season's second half and the point when résumé remarks and the College Football Playoff discussion begin carrying considerably more weight.
We're two weeks away from the first CFP rankings, with only six unbeatens left in the sport thanks to a spike in parity within the AP Top 25. For teams already nursing one loss or more, there's urgency attached to every possession, and this weekend represents one of those low-key schedules likely to spike interest.
Our predictions for Saturday sort through the matchups that could strengthen postseason credentials, expose lingering concerns or leave a few fan bases checking everyone else's schedules by Sunday afternoon. After BYU's win over Notre Dame last weekend, the Big 12 looks like a two-bid league, a negative development for at-large hopefuls in the SEC and Big Ten.
Time will tell if the Big 12 can continue its hot start.
Season results: Brad Crawford (44-18 straight up, 33-28-1 ATS); Chris Hummer (46-16 straight up, 33–28-1 ATS)
At midseason, we're tied! This has been an impressive comeback against the spread from my colleague the last couple of weeks, especially last round during the wildest weekend we've seen across college football, maybe ever. There's been so much fluctuation in polls and playoff projections, and that has spilled over here.
2026 CFP bracket projection: How Julian Sayin's uncertain status could reshape Ohio State's playoff path
John Talty
No. 8 Texas Tech (-10.5) at Cincinnati
Hummer (Cincinnati +10.5): What version of Cincinnati are we going to get? That's what this game ultimately comes down to. On paper, the Bearcats are a top 10 offense led by one of the sport's best offensive lines. But there are times when that unit can disappear for a quarter or two. The defense, for its part, started off strong but has been diced apart in Big 12 play, particularly in the secondary. Now, can a struggling Texas Tech passing attack take advantage? We'll see. Texas Tech's defensive front seven mitigates Cincinnati's biggest strength -- its run game and pass protection. But I just haven't seen enough from the Red Raiders' passing attack to call for a cover. … Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 24.
Crawford (Texas Tech -10.5): The Bearcats are foundering since a 4-0 start after giving up 79 points over their last two Big 12 games. That's a bad omen with Texas Tech coming to town, especially given the fact that the Red Raiders are trying to acquire as many style points as they can down the stretch as one of the conference's three remaining unbeatens. Even Texas Tech's defense is scoring at will, with Ben Roberts having another all-conference caliber campaign. I like Texas Tech big in this one as the Red Raiders waltz to 7-0. ... Texas Tech 41, Cincinnati 23.
No. 18 LSU (-6.5) at Auburn
Hummer (LSU -6.5): It's tough following a major win in the SEC. And I think Auburn is going to discover that this week. LSU has a truly elite defensive front, which is a problem for Auburn, given that it ranks 110th nationally in pressure rate allowed this season. It's possible LSU coughs the ball up like Georgia did time and time again last week. It's been a bugaboo for Sam Leavitt all season. But give me the more talented team in this one. I think LSU's defense wins the day. … LSU 27, Auburn 17.
Crawford (LSU -6.5): This is a classic letdown spot for Auburn after last week's thrilling win over then top-ranked Georgia. Lane Kiffin said as much during his presser on Monday, acknowledging how many times he's been in this situation as a coach and seen teams fail to come alive following a big victory. Alex Golesh is building the right way on The Plains and believes this hot start is proof of how hard his players have worked to bring Auburn back to respectability. With a win in Week 8, Auburn will be ranked. ... LSU 31, Auburn 24.
No. 6 Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan
Hummer (Indiana -7.5): Say what you will about Michigan's offense this year. The Wolverines still have the nation's No. 1 defense in yards allowed per play. That's going to keep them in it against anyone, even Indiana. The question just becomes: can Michigan score enough to keep them in it for four quarters? A lot of that depends on quarterback play. Indiana will load up to stop the run. The Hoosiers are second nationally in yards allowed per carry, so it's going to be on either Tommy Carr or Bryce Underwood to help Michigan move the ball. Can either of them do it consistently enough? They'll make some plays, but not enough. … Indiana 20, Michigan 10.
Crawford (Indiana -7.5): Kyle Whittingham's playing coy with his starting quarterback decision, but it really doesn't matter for the Wolverines -- Indiana is winning this one and is coming into Ann Arbor angry. Given the injury situation at Ohio State with Julian Sayin's return unknown at quarterback, suffice it to say the Hoosiers might be the new frontrunner in the conference despite the loss to the Buckeyes. UCLA is unbeaten, and there's one-loss Iowa and USC, but Indiana remains the well-coached defending champion and will be gearing up for another run after a viceroy this weekend. ... Indiana 27, Michigan 14.
No. 2 BYU (-6.5) at UCF
Hummer (UCF +6.5): UCF is better than people think. The Knights have already upset TCU this year and took Pittsburgh, Houston and Oklahoma State deep into the fourth quarter before falling out of those games. It'll be interesting to see how BYU responds in this one after the physical (and emotional) toll from the Notre Dame win. This game is strength on strength. The Knights quietly have one of the best front sevens in the country -- top 30 pass rush and rushing defense -- and are going up against one of the nation's elite offensive lines. On the other side of the ball, the Knights want to run and go up against a top-20 rushing defense. BYU is the better team. But the Cougars aren't strangers to close games in Big 12 play. The Knights stay in this one. … BYU 27, UCF 24.
Crawford (BYU -6.5): It's not going to be easy coming off the emotional high of beating Notre Dame at home to making the cross-country trek to Orlando, but Kalani Sitake's squad is built for it. The line scares me a bit under a touchdown, which is a show of respect for what Scott Frost and the Knights are doing this season. UCF quarterback Alonza Barnett III will reportedly miss another start due to injury, but the Knights have impressed on offense without him. ... BYU 31, UCF 21.
No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina (-2.5)
Hummer (South Carolina -2.5): So, here's what I know going into this game: 1. Tennessee's front seven is elite, and that could be a problem for a South Carolina O-line that ranks 90th nationally in pressure rate allowed. 2. The Gamecocks do have a QB with the mobility to mitigate a little bit. 3. Coming off a bye week is a huge advantage for the Gamecocks, as the Vols are playing their eighth game in a row. I don't love South Carolina as the favorite in this one. I liked the line way more when the Gamecocks opened as the underdog. But coming off a bye and with a tired Tennessee team rolling into Columbia, I'll begrudgingly go with a South Carolina cover. … South Carolina 24, Tennessee 21.
Crawford (South Carolina -2.5): This line has fluctuated considerably since the Vols opened as a narrow favorite. More along the lines of what we've seen throughout SEC play this season, here's another case of the ranked team likely going down against an unranked foe. Shane Beamer's 3-4 with the Gamecocks after an open date, but this one feels different given the Gamecocks' performance last time out. He still has this locker room believing in a possible midseason turnaround, similar to what transpired in 2024. I don't think that happens, but South Carolina does pull the upset at home following Tennessee's big win over Alabama. Just for clarity -- I'm 0-3 picking the Gamecocks to cover during SEC play, so beware if you tail this one. ... South Carolina 24, Tennessee 20.
No. 15 Iowa (-5.5) at Minnesota
Hummer (Iowa -5.5): The Gophers suffered one of the weirdest losses of the season last week in a blowout loss to Purdue. I'd expect this matchup to be a good 'ol Big Ten fistfight. These are two of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the Big Ten -- Minnesota's run blocking leaves a lot to be desired -- and teams that don't make a ton of mistakes with ball control football. The difference to me in this matchup is Minnesota might have to be one-dimensional with the pass -- the Hawkeyes have a huge advantage defensively against the run -- while Iowa, fresh off a bye, has the elite run game (third nationally in yards per carry) to control the game. … Iowa 20, Minnesota 13.
Crawford (Iowa -5.5): If you're a college football purist in the Big Ten, this one's your Super Bowl this weekend. Big plays and points will come at a premium between two teams who want to line up, play fundamentally sound football and let their offensive lines do the work. Iowa is battling UCLA for the Big Ten's third CFP entry after a successful second half of the season, which starts here against the Golden Gophers. Go with the safer pick and take the under. ... Iowa 24, Minnesota 14.
No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas (-3.5)
Hummer (Texas -3.5): It feels a bit like ignoring reality. But I like Texas to bounce back in this game. Texas is a better team than it's shown over the last two weeks, and, frankly, if you look at the advanced data, it really shouldn't have lost either game, given how it fared on a per-down basis. If Arch Manning can play just a bit cleaner and Texas manages to establish a run game against what is an average Rebels defensive front seven, then Texas should come away with a win. Is it possible the Longhorns' struggles continue, and Trinidad Chambliss does Trinidad Chambliss things? Of course. But give me the Longhorns to right the ship at home. … Texas 35, Ole Miss 31.
Crawford (Ole Miss +3.5): Let's make this simple -- pick the team with the better quarterback and not in total disarray offensively right now. I whiffed taking the Longhorns to crush Florida last week, one of my worst picks of the season. Arch Manning is inconsistent, Steve Sarkisian has lost his fastball, and now, Texas is playing without all-world edge rusher Colin Simmons. One of two SEC teams I'm picking to finish with 10 wins this season, Ole Miss gets it done here as a road underdog and increases the temperature for the Texas staff. ... Ole Miss 27, Texas 23.
No. 16 USC (-2.5) at Wisconsin
Hummer (USC -2.5): This is a game featuring contrasting styles. Wisconsin is a rugged defense with a massive front. USC, for its part, is one of the nation's best passing attacks. As is often the case with the Trojans, they'll have to stop the run to win. USC has been better at that this season (47th nationally), and that'll very much be the case against Wisconsin, which has a run-first QB under center. This is the type of game Lincoln Riley has to win. I think the Trojans get it done. … USC 27, Wisconsin 24.
Crawford (USC -2.5): When you're in CFP contention, winning road games is an absolute. And it's time for Lincoln Riley to further shake his Big Ten stigma and do it again. Credit the Trojans for finding a way at Penn State two weeks ago, but Wisconsin is a considerably better football team this season. USC DC Gary Patterson needs to watch the film from UCLA's 17-7 win last week over the Badgers and replicate that as best he can in Madison to set up a top-15 showdown on Halloween against Ohio State in Los Angeles. That game won't feel the same if USC falls this weekend. ... USC 34, Wisconsin 24.
No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah (-5.5)
Hummer (Houston +5.5): These are two really good football teams that win in a similar way: Running the football, stopping the run and a healthy turnover margin. Utah has a better pass rush and a slightly better secondary, at least at this point in the year. Frankly, this game is going to come down to the small things like turnovers, penalties and converting on third down -- both teams rank in the top 11 nationally in that category. Give me the Utes at home. But these teams are too similar for me to take a Utah cover. … Utah 24, Houston 20.
Crawford (Houston +5.5): This is my upset of the week. I feel more confident after seeing the Cougars hang on against Oklahoma State and Utah nearly get caught looking ahead last week at Colorado. One of the Big 12's unbeaten teams is no more following Week 8 as Houston pushes its way toward the top 10. This team's only loss was 28-26 at Texas Tech back in September. There's a chance Houston finishes 11-1, but doesn't reach the league championship game if Texas Tech and BYU win out. ... Houston 30, Utah 27.
