Cavan Sullivan's hot streak comes with one surprising stat as USMNT decision looms

Cavan Sullivan is making it harder for Mauricio Pochettino to ignore him.

The 16-year-old scored twice and assisted another goal Sunday in the Philadelphia Union's 5-0 win over San Diego FC, recording his first MLS brace and extending his goal-contribution streak to seven matches. Pochettino names his next USMNT roster Thursday. 

Sullivan's case is more complicated than the highlights suggest.

A Sept. 8 Guardian analysis of his breakout season put his pass-completion rate at just 65%, among the lowest rates in MLS. Philadelphia, however, play the most direct style in the league, and his number is roughly in line with the team.

That difference between what a player's numbers appear to show and the conditions producing them has become a focus of David Márquez's work. The Madrid native came through Rayo Majadahonda's academy before moving to the U.S., where he played soccer at Itawamba Community College, Grace College and Felician University. 

Two footballers with similar ability, he found, can put up very different numbers depending on the team around them. That led him to develop M-PORT, a system he says estimates how a player's output might shift at another club. Instead of treating a stat line as fixed, it considers how much of the ball a team has, how fast it plays and how strong it is.

Researchers are also studying how well a player's numbers translate from one team to another. A study published last month modeling transfers into the Premier League found there’s no single conversion rate for a player's numbers. How much of his output carries over depends on the league he’s leaving, the club he’s joining and which statistic you’re looking at. 

Sullivan could eventually offer a real-world example. His deal with Philadelphia includes a move to Manchester City when he turns 18, taking him from the most direct team in MLS to a club that led the Premier League in possession last season. The player would be the same. Almost everything shaping his numbers would not.

For Márquez, the numbers are only where the work starts. While chatting with Majadahonda Magazin in August, he said his experience helps him consider a player's current level as well as “the context in which he can perform best.”

Identifying talent, he explained, also means looking at decisions under pressure, movement without the ball and whether a player's strengths fit what the team needs. “There is still room to better connect traditional scouting with video and data,” Márquez said in comments translated from Spanish.

Cavan Sullivan has been unstoppable. pic.twitter.com/p6kRE7L4Fd

Sullivan has already seen how much the system around him can affect his opportunities. In March, Apple TV analyst Taylor Twellman told GOAL there was “a legitimate argument” that the teen didn’t fit then-coach Bradley Carnell's system, adding that he could be playing regularly for eight to 10 other MLS teams. 

Carnell was fired in May, and interim coach Ryan Richter has since given Sullivan a much bigger role. In a recent interview, Sullivan said he has “just felt more comfortable” under a coach who gives him more freedom on the field.

That doesn't mean the coaching change caused his breakout, but it’s exactly the kind of shift Márquez argues scouts have to account for.

Pochettino will announce this week whether Sullivan makes his next USMNT roster.

Sources:

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