Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Looking into all possible scenarios for year-end World No. 1 ahead of ATP Finals grand finale

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been the most dominant players on the tour this year. Wrapping up the season as the best player in the world usually denotes who ultimately had the last laugh. Fittingly, the year-end No. 1 player between them will be decided at the ATP Finals 2025.

Alcaraz's early exit from the Paris Masters opened the doors for Sinner to make the race more exciting. His victory in the French capital has helped him displace the Spaniard from the summit in the latest ATP rankings. However, this will only be a temporary stay at the top. Once the points from last year's ATP Finals are deducted, Alcaraz will be back on top for at least a week.

After that, it all depends on how they perform at the year-end championships. Alcaraz still has the upper hand when it comes to ending the season as the No. 1 player. He currently has 11,250 points, and will have 11,050 points next week. Sinner's points tally stands at 11,500, and since he's the defending champion at the ATP Finals, he's dropping 1,500 points next week, leaving him with 10,000 points.

Sinner needs to successfully defend his title at all costs in order to have a shot at clinching the year-end No. 1 ranking. However, he doesn't control his own fate. Alcaraz can still end the year on top even if his chief rival wins the title.

If Sinner wins the ATP Finals without losing a group stage match, then Alcaraz needs to win all three of his group stage matches in order to claim the year-end No. 1 spot. He could also lose one or two of his round-robin matches but then he would also need to reach the final.

Should Sinner win the title after losing one group tie, then Alcaraz only needs to win two group stage matches. In the rare circumstance of the Italian winning the tournament after going 1-2 in the group stage, then the Spaniard only needs to win one match at the ATP Finals. It is evident that the odds are stacked in Alcaraz's favor, though Sinner is certainly capable of defying the odds.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner bidding to claim the year-end No. 1 ranking for the second time

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at the Six Kings Slam 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are vying to secure the year-end No. 1 ranking for the second time in their careers. The Spaniard concluded the 2022 season atop the rankings, which also marked his breakthrough season. He claimed the No. 1 ranking for the first time following his maiden Major triumph at the US Open.

Sinner also did the same in 2024, ending the season as the No. 1 following a dominant showcase. He won his maiden Major title at the Australian Open, and ascended to the top of the rankings for the first time later in the season. He also won the US Open and the ATP Finals, along with three Masters 1000 titles.

However, the race for the year-end No. 1 is down to the wire this time. Alcaraz will aim to bounce back after his disappointing showing at the Paris Masters, while Sinner will try to sustain his current momentum. The ATP Finals 2025 will take place from November 9-16 in Turin, Italy.

Edited by Rohit