Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: NFL Christmas Day picks, props, odds, bets

The Broncos head to Kansas City to take on the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs on Christmas night. 

If last week was any indication, it’s not going to be pretty for the reigning AFC champions. 

In their first full game without their star quarterback, the Chiefs fell to the lowly Titans, losing in a 26-9 blowout. 

Not only that, but they’re now down to their third-string quarterback, Chris Oladokun, after Gardner Minshew went down with a knee injury.

Oladokun, a former seventh-round pick by the Steelers, held his own after taking over for Minshew, completing 11-of-16 passes for 111 yards, although he was sacked four times.

But that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from forecasting a beat down for the Chiefs with the Broncos vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Denver is a 13.5-point road favorite, which should call for a much different game plan than they had while playing from behind against the Jaguars last week. 

The Broncos went pass-heavy during the loss, handing the ball off just 13 times while Bo Nix threw the ball 47 times, which was the second-most for him all season. 

Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey (12) runs for a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, left, during the second half of an NFL football game in Denver, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. AP

Even with just seven attempts, Broncos starting running back RJ Harvey broke out for 50 yards on the ground. 

It was the first game since J.K. Dobbins went down that Harvey didn’t reach double-digit rush attempts.

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In the two weeks prior, Harvey had two of his best games of the season, running for 140 total yards (70 per game). 

With this game likely to get out of hand early, this week is as good of a shot as any for Harvey to have a massive game.

The play: RJ Harvey Over 52.5 rushing yards (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.