BP Says Oil Supply Growth Outside OPEC to Stall Next Year

Pumpjacks near Dickinson, North Dakota, US. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Photo by Daniel Acker /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Oil supply growth from non-OPEC producers will stall in early 2026, while demand remains robust, according to BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss. 

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“Non-OPEC supply we largely see going flat after February or March next year,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday after the company reported earnings. “Supply will be relatively flat for the next 12-18 months after that.”

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Such a pause could shore up crude prices, which are trading near $69 a barrel in London after a retreat of 8% this year. Many forecasters such as the International Energy Agency anticipate a global supply surplus to accumulate in the months ahead and persist through 2026. 

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It would also represent a win for the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia, which has been rapidly reviving output with a view to retaking the market share it had ceded to rivals. The group ratified plans to complete the restart of an initial supply tranche this past weekend and is contemplating a further ramp-up.

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Non-OPEC supply has been driven in recent years by nations including Guyana and the US, where BP expects to increase output of oil and natural gas, Auchincloss said. 

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Brazil, where BP has just made its biggest discovery in 25 years, has also been a driver of production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Auchincloss declined to give any specifics on that project, announced Monday, saying they’re now working with regulators and will be “moving it forward at pace.”

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Auchincloss’s predictions for non-OPEC supply look a bit more downbeat over the longer term compared with the IEA, an energy adviser to major economies based in Paris. The agency forecasts that while non-OPEC+ supply growth will slow sharply next year, it will still increase by 940,000 barrels a day and continue to expand until the end of the decade.

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The BP chief said demand remains “pretty robust,” with growth expected this year and next year that’s in line with trends over the past two decades. Petrochemicals will lead consumption next year, he added. 

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“Demand growth continues to be strong for the product,” he said.

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The immediate outlook for oil prices is unclear, Auchincloss added, with markets being shaped by sanctions on Russia and Iran, as well as Chinese purchases for storage, in addition to underlying fundamentals.  

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—With assistance from Alex Longley.

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(Updates with additional context from third paragraph.)

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