Bangladesh Vote Tests Gen Z Uprising, India-China Balance

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For India, a win by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which represents the old-guard, will likely be the most stable outcome, according to Harsh Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. The BNP, which was banned during Hasina’s rule and is now led by the son of former leader Khaleda Zia, is widely seen as emerging as the largest bloc in the country’s 300-member parliament.

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“If the BNP comes to power, in full majority, it won’t be very worrying. BNP understands the compulsions of the geopolitics and the importance India holds in the region and for the country itself,” said Pant. “If it is a coalition government, it will be a problem for India. It will become a battle for the spoils of power. For Delhi, it will become difficult.”

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At home, the student-led movement that helped topple Hasina has fractured. As idealism collided with electoral realpolitik, defections and internal rifts weakened the push for a centrist alternative. With the Awami League barred from the race, voters on Feb. 12 will choose largely between the once-banned Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

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The moment highlights the broader challenges facing youth-led movements globally: converting protests against soaring living costs and authoritarian regimes into political power. Bangladesh was among the first countries shaken by such unrest in mid-2024, when demonstrations over the abolition of a popular job-quota system  exploded into a nationwide revolt in the Muslim-majority nation of 176 million where about 40% of people are under the age of 25. 

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“If it is a coalition government, it will be a problem for India.”

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“If it’s a weaker BNP, there’s a greater chance that the BNP will have less capital to invest in normalizing relations with India,” said Xavier, who is also a senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress. “Which means a weaker BNP is more beholden to the Jamaat, opposition and the sentiments on the streets, which are obviously deeply anti-India today.”

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China, meanwhile, has emerged as one of Bangladesh’s most important external partners, and any government in Dhaka is likely to keep deepening that relationship to protect long-term economic security, Xavier said. “The real question is when does that clash with Indian interests,” he added, describing it as a familiar balancing act across South Asia — one that has played out in countries such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

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China has quietly built economic, political and social capital in Bangladesh over time, creating leverage that New Delhi has struggled to counter, he said, adding that India, by contrast, has lost ground over the past year and a half, a deficit that could take years to rebuild.

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The political uncertainty comes as Bangladesh grapples with a deepening cost-of-living crisis and supply-chain upheavals that have damaged the country’s critically important garment industry. Inflation accelerated to 8.58% in January, driven by food prices, while non-food inflation remains close to 9%. Weak state investment has further strained the economy as more than 2.7 million people remain unemployed, nearly a million of whom hold university degrees, according to official data. 

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Some relief may be on the horizon. The White House said Monday it would cut tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19% from 20%, with exemptions for certain textile products, and signaled expectations of new commercial deals, including purchases of US aircraft and billions of dollars of US energy and agricultural goods.