Asian Stocks to Slip With US CPI, Iran in Focus: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks were poised to follow Wall Street lower as traders held back from riskier bets ahead of key inflation data and remained wary over US-Iran developments.

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Equity-index futures for Australia and Hong Kong pointed to losses at the open. Contracts for US stocks were little changed after both benchmarks edged lower in the New York session, while a gauge of US-listed Chinese companies fell almost 3%. Tokyo stocks will reopen after a holiday Tuesday.

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US crude was steady early Wednesday around $83 a barrel as Iran reiterated plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut until its demands are met. Oil had earlier dropped after Pakistan said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement.” Treasuries edged up ahead of a report that’s expected to show moderation in consumer prices.

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The cautious tone highlights how investors are weighing persistent geopolitical risks with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. Hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations have faded after optimism about an imminent deal lifted risk assets last week, while Wednesday’s inflation report may shape bets on the Fed’s policy outlook.

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“Stocks are reflecting some disappointment about the lack of tangible progress in the Persian Gulf after exuberantly reacting to promises of an imminent deal last week,” said Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC.

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Wednesday’s US consumer price index is expected to show that energy-related pressures have eased after intensifying in the months immediately following the start of the war. A softer reading may help alleviate some concern at the Fed after three officials dissented in July in favor of raising interest rates.

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“I expect the CPI report to continue its downward trend which will further support the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady rather than hiking them, even with last Friday’s weak jobs report,” said Dennis Follmer at Montis Financial.

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Other US data Tuesday offered a mixed picture of the economy. Sales of existing homes fell to a three-month low in July as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to weigh on the housing market. Small-business optimism, meanwhile, climbed to the highest in almost a year as firms stepped up hiring plans and inflation pressures eased.

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In Asia, investors will also be watching the yen as it approaches a key level against the dollar that may revive speculation that Japanese authorities will intervene to support the currency.

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Elsewhere, gold retreated from a two-month high as traders weighed prospects for a US-Iran agreement while elevated oil prices continued to signal uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory.

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“We see crude oil prices driving the war narrative, with price swings likely to dictate the pace of escalation and de-escalation,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.