Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for top-20 battle

There’s a lot of perception vs. performance that you always have to consider in college football. 

Of course, that logic applies to any sport, but whether it be media narratives, program notoriety or rankings, a lot of these intangibles cloud judgement over quality of wins, consistency and execution in the fragile landscape of college football. 

This contrast is what stands out to me in Saturday’s SEC battle between No. 8 Alabama and No. 14 Missouri. 

Alabama vs. Missouri odds, prediction

Usually, public betting will follow suit with perception, but here, 65% of the handle is backing the Tigers to cover the spread since the line moved three points in their direction.

Although Alabama is 4-1, the Crimson Tide bring a more battle-tested resume into Columbia, Mo. They’ve gone 4-0 straight up and ATS since their 31-17 fall to Florida State as 14-point favorites in Week 1. 

Ty Simpson bumped himself up to third in Heisman odds (+800) after throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns in the Crimson Tide’s 30-14 statement against the flourishing Vanderbilt program last week. Simpson owns a 13-1 TD-INT ratio and is surrounded with elite weaponry in the receiving corps, but I’m not sold on their grip over this Tigers defense.

Ty Simpson has been making a Heisman case through the Crimson Tide’s 4-1 start. Getty Images

Missouri is an elite pass rush. Zion Young and Damon Wilson both rank within the top-five players amongst the Power 4 in pressure rate. Simpson is going to face constant heat and there won’t be much relief on the ground either. The Tigers are the No. 1 overall team in rushing yards allowed (39.5 ppg) and ranks tied for fourth overall in opponent third-down conversions (2.8 per game).

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Missouri has played all five of their games at home and are well-rested off a bye week. The only best argument you can make regarding weaknesses is that its strength of schedule has offered them a cake walk into this game. Sure, Beau Pribula hasn’t faced a defense like Alabama’s yet. 

Though the Crimson Tide aren’t deploying the most stifling run defense. Against the other two Top 25’s they played in Georgia and Vanderbilt, they succumbed 377 combined rushing yards.

Tigers’ feature running back Ahmad Hardy can milk that for what it’s worth as he leads the nation in yards after contact (551) and is second in raw total at 730.

According to SP+, a predictive valuation of efficiency, there is a wafer-thin margin between these two: the Crimson Tide are 0.8 points higher than the Tigers. 

Alabama hasn’t looked super convincing on the road, and after back-to-back emotional victories against Georgia and Vanderbilt, Missouri is in a comfortable spot. 

THE PLAY: Missouri +3 (-105 at BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.