2032 and 2036 Taurid Meteor Showers Could Bring Larger Halloween Fireball Debris to Earth

The Taurid meteor shower is an autumn spectacle that can sometimes produce “Halloween fireballs.” Dust, rocks, and other debris from the Comet Encke as they fall through Earth’s atmosphere cause these streaking flashes of light. Larger pieces of debris usually cause the fireballs.

Most of the space debris that makes up this meteor shower is rather small and likely completely burns up before it even reaches Earth’s surface. But what if these streaking Halloween fireballs were much larger? Would the planet be at risk?

A new study from the University of New Mexico (UNM), published in Acta Astronautica, looks at how future Taurid meteor showers, in 2032 and 2036, may produce Near Earth Objects (NEOs) that may require planetary defence.

Read More: The Taurid Meteor Showers Are Already Shining, and May Flash Shimmering Fireballs This Fall 2025

What Is Planetary Defence?

It’s not uncommon to see meteor showers caused by small space debris, like dust and rocks, in our planet’s atmosphere. However, events like the Tunguska asteroid impact and the Chelyabinsk meteor are far less common.

When these larger meteor events occur, they can cause major damage — not planet-ending damage — but enough to be concerning. Having a mitigation plan in place to possibly divert these larger impacts could help keep the planet safe.

“Planetary defense is the multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated effort to protect the Earth and its inhabitants from impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs),” said Mark Boslough, a UNM research professor and lead author of the study, in a press release.

“It requires surveys to discover and track NEOs, campaigns to characterize those that are hazardous, modeling efforts to understand and predict impact effects and associated consequences, and mitigation through impact avoidance and/or civil defense,” Boslough added.

Larger NEOs From The Taurid Stream

For this study, Boslough and the research team analyzed data on the Taurid stream and found an elevated risk of airburst-sized NEOs. These airburst-sized NEOs are small enough to explode in the atmosphere but not impact the ground, similar to the Chelyabinsk Meteor.

The team also noted they had been investigating the possibility of a Taurid resonant swarm (TRS).

“The resonant swarm is theoretical, but there is some evidence that a sparse swarm of small objects exists because bright fireballs and seismic signatures of impacts on the moon have been observed at times that the theory has predicted,” said Boslough.

Though theoretical, the study suggests that the resonant swarm is likely due to Jupiter’s gravity, which pulls the objects in the Taurid stream together during their orbits. If the theory proves true, the Taurid swarm could pass Earth in 2032 and 2036, increasing the impact risk.

“Our findings are that we have the technology to test the Taurid resonant swarm by using existing telescopes for targeted sky surveys in 2032 and 2036 when the hypothetical swarm will make very close approaches,” said Boslough.

Catching the Impact In Time

If the 2032 and 2036 Taurid resonant swarm theory is true, the objects should be large enough to spot, though many would not be observable via telescope until after they’ve passed our planet, according to the press release.

“If we discover the objects with enough warning time, then we can take measures to reduce or eliminate the risk. If the new infrared telescope (NEO Surveyor) is in operation, then we can potentially have much more warning time,” Boslough said.

Boslough doesn’t intend to cause alarm; he only wants to help people be aware of potential impacts in the future, much as people are aware of earthquakes and volcanoes.

“Asteroid impacts represent a small but significant risk, and New Mexico’s national labs have some of the best minds working on the problem,” he said.

Read More: Simulations Reveal The Alarming Effects Of Blowing Up An Incoming Asteroid Before It Hits Earth

Article Sources

Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:

• This article covers a recent study published in Acta Astronautica. 2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?
• This article reports on information from NASA. 115 Years Ago: The Tunguska Asteroid Impact Event
• This article reports on information from NASA. Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense