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NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, including 1-3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year.
In comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
NOAA emphasized the suppressive impact it expects the developing El Niño climate pattern will have on tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR) this year.
This region spans the waters between West Africa and the Caribbean and is the birthplace of many hurricanes that strike North and Central America.
NOAA’s forecast parallels Colorado State University’s (CSU) April outlook, which called for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, including 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year.
This is the fewest number of storms that CSU has predicted since 2019 — the university was the pioneer of early-year hurricane season forecasts beginning in 1984.
CSU anticipated that a Super El Niño would become the dominant factor in determining tropical weather patterns this season.
This comes as data out of the Pacific Ocean points to a historically strong Super El Niño that is forecast to take hold sometime this summer and is expected to virtually shut down hurricane formation in the open waters of the Atlantic.
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
El Niño describes warmer-than-average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder-than-average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean produce strong winds that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic and enhance development in the Eastern Pacific.
While such a strong El Niño is expected to virtually shut down hurricane formation in the open waters of the Atlantic this year, it could actually generate so-called “homegrown” tropical systems in the northern Gulf and along the Southeast coast — where storms tend to form during the first-half of the season.
Although these systems tend to be weaker and shorter-lived compared to storms that develop farther out in the Atlantic, they also generally have shorter lead times before impacts occur, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Climatologically, the first named storm in the Atlantic typically does not form until around June 20, while the first hurricane usually develops closer to August 11.
Furthermore, forecasters qualify that exactly when El Niño forms will play an almost equal role in how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.
NOAA, the FOX Forecast Center, and FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross all cautioned that it only takes one storm to cause major impacts.
NOAA generally releases an updated hurricane forecast in August, ahead of the peak of the season in the Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30.
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