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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is basically telling anyone banking on a string of rate cuts to maybe find something new to hope for.
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“Tariffs and the costs of reconfiguring trade are putting some upward pressure on inflation,” he said in a speech Thursday, adding that monetary policy cannot:
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- Fix the “lost efficiency caused by increased trade friction”
- Change the adoption of AI
- “Influence fertility or immigration rates”
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“In his view, cutting interest rates further would only stoke excess inflation, as aggregate demand would bump up against the reduced productive capacity of the economy,” wrote Desjardins strategist Royce Mendes after seeing Macklem’s speech.
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For mortgage shoppers, this is another hint that the potential interest savings on variable rates may be capped, barring a crisis that demands unexpected rate cuts. Mind you, variables come with gentler prepayment penalties, if that’s important to you.
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Speaking of variables, they’re still about 20 to 30 basis points below the leading fixed rates, at least at national lenders. We’re talking as low as 3.74 per cent to float your mortgage at Citadel Mortgages, versus 4.04 at Pine Mortgage for a five-year fixed.
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Some of the sharper regional lenders are posting even lower rates in some cases, so keep an eye out for those.
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And, as is tradition, coughing up fees for default insurance still buys you more than 30 basis points off most uninsured rates.
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Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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For the best national insured and uninsured mortgage rates, updated daily, please visit our mortgage rate page here.
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