World Finance Chiefs Head to IMF With a Sense of Déjà Vu

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Given Ueda’s commitment to thorough communication — and with pricing in the overnight swaps market indicating traders see a roughly 60% chance of a hike this month — the appearances may be a chance to alert the market if it’s off base in its thinking, or to offer a nod of assent.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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Almost the entire European Central Bank Governing Council is heading to DC for the IMF meetings, with President Christine Lagarde, Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Piero Cipollone all set to speak.

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Back in Europe, accounts of the ECB and Swiss National Bank’s March 19 decisions, when both central banks held rates steady, are due on Thursday. Investors will be seeing if the reports show any biases toward rate increases — in the case of Frankfurt — or taking borrowing costs negative — in Zurich. 

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The same day, a monthly GDP reading for the UK is likely to show growth of just 0.1% in February — the last print before the impact of the Iran war shows up in output data. 

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Inflation numbers are scheduled for Israel and Nigeria on Wednesday. 

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In the former, data are expected to show the monthly consumer-price reading jumped the most in five months in March, as its joint attacks with the US on Iran intensified. Economists expect the measure to climb to 0.5% in March from 0.2% in February. The year-on-year print is nonetheless expected to remain at about 2%, well in the middle of the central bank’s 1%-3% target range.

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Nigerian March inflation data will the first reading of price growth in the West African nation since the start of the Iran war. Fuel costs jumped more than 40% last month, impacting transport fares and food prices. Still, base effects may result in the annual reading easing to 13.4% from 15.1%, according to Bloomberg Economics.

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Latin America

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On Tuesday, Argentina’s March consumer price data are likely to again underscore the limits of President Javier Milei’s inflation fighting strategy.

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Analysts surveyed by the central bank see the monthly reading hitting 3% for the first time in a year, while the annual reading languishes above 30%.

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Budget data due Thursday is all but certain to show that Argentina met the March fiscal target outlined in its program with the IMF, while Torcuato Di Tella University’s leading indicator continues to run hot and cold.

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In Brazil, February GDP-proxy data look set to be more in line with an economy that’s flatlining under the weight of the central bank’s double-digit interest rates.

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Ahead of elections this year, tax reforms, government transfers to low-income families, and steps to expand consumer credit will likely sustain consumer spending.

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Banco Central do Brasil in March — before the US and Iran agreed the ceasefire — kept its 2026 GDP forecast at 1.6%, down from 2.3% last year. A prolonged Middle East conflict, the central bank had warned, would weigh on activity and spur inflation.

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In the days after Sunday’s so-called mega ballot — the winnowing of more than 30 presidential hopefuls down to a final two for a June 7 run-off — Peru will report February economic activity as well as the March labor market report for the country’s capital of Lima.

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Peru’s economy has been holding up, surprising analysts in the face of considerable political volatility; the nation’s had eight presidents and seven impeachment trials since 2016.

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Still, January GDP-proxy data pointed to the cooling that most analysts see pulling 2026 growth below 3% from last year’s 3.4%. 

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—With assistance from Vince Golle, Simon Lee, Robert Jameson, Paul Richardson, Nduka Orjinmo, Lisa Abramowicz, Laura Dhillon Kane, Brian Fowler and Beril Akman.

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