Wimbledon 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (11) Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Date: July 1, 2025

Tournament: Wimbledon

Round: First Round (Round of 128)

Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, England

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Grass

Prize Money: £53,550,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, ESPN | UK - BBC | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview

Alex de Minaur at Wimbledon 2025. (Photo: Getty)

11th seed Alex de Minaur will take on Roberto Carballes Baena in the first round of Wimbledon 2025.

De Minaur opted not to defend his title at the Libema Open and instead chose to begin his grass swing at the HSBC Championships. He was up against Jiri Lehecka in the first round and lost to him 6-4, 6-2.

Outside of grass, de Minaur's best results this year include a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open and a runner-up finish at the Rotterdam Open. He also made the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters.

Carballes Baena hasn't played a match since he retired from his first-round contest at the Italian Open in early May. He has had a rather subdued year, with only a couple of good results. He reached the third round of the Australian Open and the semifinals of the Morrocco Open.

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Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena head-to-head

De Minaur leads Carballes Baena 2-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the European Open 2024 in Antwerp in three sets.

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Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction

Roberto Carballes Baena at the Barcelona Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

De Minaur's experience at last year's Wimbledon was bittersweet. He advanced to his first-ever quarterfinal at the tournament, though an injury forced him to abandon his campaign. He withdrew prior to his quarterfinal showdown against Novak Djokovic after injuring himself in the fourth round.

Despite not winning a match on grass in the lead-up to this year's Wimbledon, de Minaur will be the favorite to win his first-round match on account of who he's up against. Carballes Baena hasn't played for over six weeks and has lost his last three matches.

The Spaniard has a 4-13 career record on grass, with three of those wins coming against players ranked outside the top 100. He also has a 1-6 record at Wimbledon, with his only win coming in 2023.

De Minaur, on the other hand, has a 10-5 record at the All England Club and a 32-18 record on grass overall. He has also beaten Carballes Baena in both of their previous encounters. Anything other than a comfortable win for the Aussie would be quite surprising.

Pick: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets.

Edited by Rohit